LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Calendar: Sep CPI, Fed Speakers, Beige Book
Oct-14 10:30
* US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET * 10/14 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-...
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LOOK AHEAD: Monday/Tuesday Calendar
Sep-14 10:29
Slow start to the new week, main focus on FOMC rate announcement on Wednesday at 1400ET
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 09/14 1130 US Tsy $92B 13W & $79B 26W bill auctions
- 09/15 0815 ADP Weekly Employment Change (12,000 prior, --)
- 09/15 0830 Empire Manufacturing (20.6, 15.0)
- 09/15 1130 US Tsy $75B 6W bill auction
- 09/15 1300 US Tsy $13B 20Y Bond re-open (912810UX4)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Breaches The 50-Day EMA
Sep-14 10:26
- In FX, EURUSD has started the week on a bearish note. The focus is on key support at the 50-day EMA currently at 1.1569. It has been breached, a clear break of the average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 1.1512 initially, the Aug 13 low. Initial resistance is 1.1654, the Sep 9 high.
- GBPUSD is in consolidation mode but has pierced support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.3492. The EMA represents a key short-term pivot level. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement, exposing a trendline support at 1.3464. The trendline is drawn from the Jun 24 low. Clearance of both support points would highlight a stronger bear threat. Initial firm resistance is 1.3568, the Sep 9 high.
- USDJPY continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A bear threat remains present. Last week’s breach of support at 155.23, the Aug 3 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and highlights potential for a continuation of the bear cycle. Scope is seen for a move towards 151.94, the 50% retracement of the bull leg between Apr 22 ‘25 and Jul 23. Initial resistance to watch is 155.23, the Aug 3 low.
STIR: No Further Reaction To Oil Climb With Fed Path Near Hawkish Extremes
Sep-14 10:23
- US rates have faded crude oil futures opening firmly higher following the weekend’s closure of Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline, although the former are still near last week’s fresh hawkish extremes.
- Wednesday’s FOMC decision is in focus. See the MNI Preview here including our expectations for the dot plot and economic projections: https://mni.marketnews.com/4hmNZm9 . An analyst summary will follow later today including SEP expectations and their own rate views.
- For a top-level look in the interim, a Reuters poll found that 86 of 101 economists expect the Fed to hike 25bp this week vs 65 of 93 expecting a hold when asked on Sep 9. In addition, 37 of 70 expect the Fed to hike at least twice by end-Mar 2027.
- FF cumulative hikes from 3.63% effective: 21.5bp for Wed, 33.5bp Oct, 50bp Dec, 59.6bp Jan 2027, 74bp Mar, 81bp Apr and 88.5bp Jun.
- SOFR futures are up to 2 ticks firmer on the day looking out to end-2028 contracts, with the peak implied yield at 4.615% (SFRU7) compared to Friday’s close of 4.63% and the snap implied high of 4.675% after CPI.
