EUR: Volume Spike Tips EUR/USD Through Post-NFP High

Reuters reports comments from a German gov't spox stating that Chancellor Friedrich Merz is coordinating with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, and French President Emmanuel Macron with regard to the situation vis-a-vis US tariffs. Adds that "time is money when it comes to tariff negotiations." Germany and France remain on different tracks in terms of response to US tariffs, with Berlin seeking a swift deal even if it is not perfect, while France has sought to avoid perceptions of EU 'weakness' at the risk of no agreement being reached. 

• There has been significant uncertainty over the weekend as to the date of when 'reciprocal' tariff rates might kick back in. The initial date of 9 July supposedly remains, but both President Trump and Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent have said that 1 August will be the point at which the higher rates "boomerang back", (although denying this is a new deadline).
• In any case, there is little-to-no expectation of a deep trade deal being announced between the two sides, with a thin skeleton deal that includes the 10% baseline US tariff, seen as the best outcome in terms of avoiding friction in the short term.
• Bloomberg report comments from Portuguese Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, who said ahead of the EU economic affairs minsiters' meeting on 8 July, that “It’s possible to have an agreement with very low tariffs,” but added “If the terms of the deal are not favorable for the EU then there is no agreement,” 

• In the equity space, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish. Resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This has been followed by a breach of key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a 1.236 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. Key support is at the 50-day EMA - at 6000.73. First support lies at 6138.46, the 20- day EMA.
• Short-term trend signals in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bearish, however, the recovery from the Jun 23 low still appears to be a potential reversal and the contract is holding on to its most recent gains. Price has pierced both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of both averages would strengthen a reversal theme. This would open 5486.00, the May 20 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a breach of 5194.00, the Jun 23 low, reinstates a bearish theme.

The ECB Governing Council's statement of macroprudential policies here: 

• "The Governing Council calls on national macroprudential authorities to maintain the current resilience of the banking system. Despite elevated risks, banking sector conditions in terms of capital headroom and profitability remain favourable, with no indication of credit supply constraints related to bank capital requirements"
• "In line with the Governing Council statement issued in June 2024, 2 the main priority for macroprudential policy at this juncture is to preserve bank resilience"
• "Finally, considering the high level of uncertainty, macroprudential policy needs to remain agile and adapt to changing conditions as needed. Policymakers should continue to closely monitor the situation, as further adverse shocks may require a shift in the policy stance."