THB: USD/THB To Multi Week Highs, Amid Broader USD Gains, Lower Gold

New Zealand government bond yields sit firmer but away from session highs. Spill over from softer US Tsy yields, particularly at the front end of the curve, has been evident as Asia Pac Monday trade has unfolded. 

• The 10yr was last around 4.64%, still up around 3bps for the session. Earlier highs were close to 4.67%. Other parts of the curve are up around 2-3bps, except for the 2yr, which is back to flat, last around 3.39%. The US 2yr struggled to build on Friday momentum, we were last near 4.00%.  
• NZ-US 2yr swap spreads were last near -62bps, just up from Friday lows.
• On the data front, we had Q1 manufacturing volumes up 2.4%q/q, against a revised 1.2% gain in Q4. Activity was +5.1%q/q, versus 3.0% in Q4.
• RBNZ Chief Economist Conway was interviewed today on Radio NZ and said that the central bank expects core inflation to moderate towards the 2% band mid-point by end-2025 going into 2026 despite the recent pickup in headline inflation. He also expects growth to improve later in the year helped by easier monetary policy, but the “labour market is pretty flat”.
• The local data calendar is empty tomorrow. 

China's May trade data saw recent trends broadly maintained, while outcomes were slightly below market expectations. Exports were 4.8%y/y, against a 6.0% forecast and 8.1% prior. Imports fell -3.4%y/y (versus -0.8% forecast and -0.2% prior). This left the trade surplus at $103.22bn, above April's outcome ($96.18bn) and the market consensus of $101.1bn. 

• Trade with the US remains a focus point, with exports now down to $28.82bn, versus levels close to $49bn at the end of last year. This a -34%y/y outcome, per Bloomberg. Exports with other parts of Asia were mostly down a touch in May.
• Offset came from exports to the EU, up to $49.50bn from $46.71bn prior. Most individual EU countries saw a rise. Exports to the UK were yup to $7.46bn from $6.92bn and to Brazil, $6.45bn from $5.72bn.
• The trade surplus with the US eased to $18.01bn, from $20.46bn. To the EU it was steady at $26.62bn from $26.67bn. With parts of Asia, China's trade position was little changed from April levels.
• On the import side, volumes for commodity imports were mostly down, except for soybeans and natural gas. Coal, crude oil and iron ore were all off April levels.
• Focus will be on US-China trade talks alter today in London, although trends still slowed in May in terms of exports to the US, even with lower tariff levels agreed to at the meting in Geneva. 

• CHINA MAY EXPORTS +4.8% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +6.0% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
• CHINA MAY IMPORTS -3.4% Y/Y VS MEDIAN -1.0% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
• CHINA MAY TRADE SURPLUS +$103.2 BLN VS MEDIAN +$101.1 BLN