CNH: USD/CNY Fixing Steady, USDCNH Falls

Jan-03 02:36

The USD/CNY fixing printed at 7.1878, versus a Bloomberg consensus of 7.3202 which was unchanged from yesterday

  • The fixing error was little changed from yesterday at -1324pip, the widest levels since July
  • USD/CNH is testing 7.33 following the fix, and now trades at 7.3311. The pair hit a low of 7.3160 on Thursday

Historical bullets

CROSS ASSET: South Korea Managing Martial Law Fallout, A$ Sinking

Dec-04 02:29

Risk sentiment is slightly softer in latest dealings. Equity markets are mostly down throughout the region, led by South Korean stocks. The Kospi is down by 2%, although after gapping lower at the open, we haven't since further sharp losses. South Korean regulators and the central bank are doing their best to contain the fallout from the Tuesday martial law imposition. 

  • They aim to boost short term liquidity via repurchase agreements and will step in in case of FX volatility. The won is holding near 1414 around 1% stronger than end Tuesday levels, but up from earlier lows sub 1407.
  • Focus is likely to rest with the fate of President Yoon, with the opposition party calling for an impeachment motion today.
  • Elsewhere the USD is mostly firmer, particularly against the higher beta plays in G10 FX. AUD/USD is down around 0.70%, to  0.6440/45. We aren't too far off late Oct lows (0.6434). Local yields are lower across the board, led by the front end.
  • The weaker Q3 GDP is weighing, while the China Caixin services PMI was also below expectations.
  • China equities are tracking lower, but losses here and in Hong Kong, are fairly modest at this stage. USD/CNH is down modestly, last near the 7.2900 level. The earlier CNY fixing showed a firm bias against depreciation pressures and remains wedged under 7.2000 for now.
  • Gold and oil are little changed, while US yields are close to unchanged at this stage. 

CHINA:  CAIXIN PMI Services Down for November. 

Dec-04 01:52
  • China’s Caixin PMI Services unexpectedly declined in November to 51.5 from 52 in October.
  • Market estimates were 52.4.
  • Within that employment was unchanged at +50.2, whilst prices charged fell from month prior. 

JGBS: Cash Bonds Slightly Richer, Light Local Calendar

Dec-04 01:35

In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures are stronger, +7 compared to settlement levels.

  • Japan's services sector saw a renewed expansion in November, with the au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI climbing to 50.5 from 49.7 in October. The composite Index rises to 50.1 from 49.6 in October.
  • Holdings data from the Bank of Japan suggest it may have ended up selling ¥200 billion ($1.3 billion) of futures-linked 10-year notes to financial companies to ease its shortage.
  • The BOJ held ¥8.0262 trillion of notes due in March 2032 as of Nov. 29, down from ¥8.2262 trillion on Nov. 20, the data released late Tuesday show. This is the cheapest-to-deliver security for a March contract of 10-year note futures. (per BBG)
  • Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest sell-off. The focus in the US turns to ADP private employment and ISM data later today while Fed Chairman Powell will speak at a moderated policy discussion at 1340ET. US Non-Farm Payrolls are due on Friday.
  • Cash JGBs are ~1bp richer across benchmarks. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.7bp lower at 1.074% versus the cycle high of 1.108%.
  • The swaps curve has twist-steepened, with rates 1bp lower to 1bp higher. Swap spreads are slightly wider.