CNH: USD/CNH - Breaks Below 6.7500 Making New Lows For Year

ACGBs (YM -3.5 & XM -4.5) are weaker US tsys finished showing a bear-steepener, with benchmark yields 7-9bps higher.

• Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is steadily accelerating following progress on a 60-day transit fee freeze under the temporary interim agreement.
• Cleveland Fed President Hammack, a 2026 FOMC voter and one of the most hawkish members of the Committee, told CNBC that inflation is "too high" and   that rate hikes may thus be necessary to tame it.
• S&P Global PMI Mfg (F) Index rises to 51.5 from 50.7 in May; Year ago 50.6.
• (Bloomberg) "Sydney's home-price declines accelerated in June, dragging down national values by the most in 3-1/2 years, reflecting a combination of affordability and cost-of-living pressures as well as higher interest rates."
• Cash ACGBs are 3-4bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +30bps.
• The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -4 across contracts.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing shows tightening across all meetings, with the probability of a 25bp hike rising from 24% for August to 56% by December 2026.  
• Today, the local calendar will also see Building Approvals data.
• The AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 4.25% 21 December 2035 bond today and A$700mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond on Friday.

TYU6 is dealing at 109-22, -0-06+ from closing levels in today’s Asia-Pac session.

• US tsys finished showing a bear-steepener, with benchmark yields 7-9bps higher, following a surge in JOLTS job openings and Quits levels.
• The Chicago Business Barometer, produced with MNI, cooled 6.0 points to 56.7 in June. The Barometer remained in expansionary territory for a second consecutive month.
• Cleveland Fed President Hammack, a 2026 FOMC voter and one of the most   hawkish members of the Committee, told CNBC (on the sidelines of the ECB Sintra monetary policy symposium Tuesday) that inflation is "too high" and   that rate hikes may thus be necessary to tame it.
• SCOTUS announcement highlights: Rejected Trump's order to end birthright   citizenship, barred transgender athletes from girls’ sports, knocked down campaign finance rules on donation limits, and will consider striking down assault gun bans. Of note, NPR accidentally released a story that Justice Alito would retire - retracted shortly after.
• Look ahead to Wednesday: Japan's second quarter Tankan survey is due today, before Eurozone HICP inflation and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data. There will also be focus on central bank speaker's at the ECB's forum in Sintra, headlined by Fed Chair Warsh.

NZGBs are 2-3bps cheaper after US tsys finished showing a bear-steepener, with benchmark yields 7-9bps higher, following a surge in JOLTS job openings and Quits levels.

• The Chicago Business Barometer, produced with MNI, cooled 6.0 points to 56.7 in June. The Barometer remained in expansionary territory for a second consecutive month.
• Cleveland Fed President Hammack, a 2026 FOMC voter and one of the most hawkish members of the Committee, told CNBC (on the sidelines of the ECB Sintra monetary policy symposium Tuesday) that inflation is "too high" and that rate hikes may thus be necessary to tame it.
• SCOTUS announcement highlights: Rejected Trump's order to end birthright   citizenship, barred transgender athletes from girls’ sports, knocked down campaign finance rules on donation limits, and will consider striking down assault gun bans. Of note, NPR accidentally released a story that Justice Alito would retire - retracted shortly after.
• Swap rates are 2-4bps higher, with a steeper 2s10s curve.
• RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is slightly firmer across meetings. 19bps of tightening is priced for July, while February 2027 assigns 71bps.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will be empty.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$150mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond and NZ$50mn of the 5.00% May-54 bond.