CNH: USD/CNH Above 7.1800, Inflation Out Today, US-China Talks In August

Jul-08 21:52

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USD/CNH sits near 7.1815 in early Wednesday dealings, close to recent highs. The pair probed above 7...

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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Rallies Off Lower Levels

Jun-08 21:45

RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
PRICE: 96.560 @ 15:51 BST Jun 06
SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14
SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support

Aussie 3-yr futures rallied off lower levels on the RBA rate cut and guidance, however prices remain south of the 50-dma for now. The recent rally took out resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high, however momentum faltered, leaving 96.860 resistance intact. This remains the key level to the upside. Instead, a continuation lower would strengthen a bearish theme. This would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. A reversal higher would refocus attention on 96.860, the Apr 7 high.

FOREX: J.P. Morgan On FX Technicals

Jun-08 21:31

J.P. Morgan: "The EUR/USD short-term rally reaches the upper end of the springtime trading range with the first of two medium-term resistance zones at 1.1502-1.1604. Tactical support within the current range rests at the 1.1258 50-day moving average. Key support is at 1.1026-1.105.

GBP/USD triggers momentum divergence sell signals as it probes 1.3557-1.36 channel and trend-line resistance. The rally deceleration near key resistance levels favors downside mean reversion over the near term. Closes below 1.3416 would confirm a short-term trend reversal, in our view. Key support rests at 1.314-1.328.
The USD/JPY short-term slide from148.39-148.70 resistance stalls at141.97-142.36 tactical support. Key medium-term support remains near140, which we suspect holds into the early-summer. While we expect more range-trading over the near term, the longer-term price pattern continues to favor an eventual break to the downside.

The AUD/USD bull trend hasn’t faltered, but the move continues to fade near 0.6535-0.655 Fibonacci levels and on top of the 0.64-handle levels that have acted as a major bifurcation for the pair in recent quarters. The price action looks like a top pattern above 0.6344-0.6357 tactical support and the nearby 50-day moving average."

FOREX: Goldman Sachs Upgrades EUR/USD Forecast

Jun-08 21:24

Goldman Sachs: "USD: Still sliding. The broad Dollar has fallen about 6% on the year and has now fully reversed its Q4 2024 surge. At the same time, the Dollar has been roughly flat against other DM currencies on net over the last six weeks. It is therefore not surprising that investors see more two-way risks around the currency now than they have for some time. But while this adjustment has been swift and meaningful—which is pretty standard behavior around currency peaks—we still think this is more the “end of the beginning” rather than the “beginning of the end” of the Dollar shift. Today’s payrolls report is consistent with more slowing in the real economy and less exceptional US performance, which we think should still weigh on the Dollar over time. And some of the skepticism stems from whether foreign investors will continue to diversify out of US assets in an environment where US returns are solid but not exceptional. But, while US equities are back to flat on the year, for a EUR-based investor they are down 8%, which puts the relative performance to European equities in even starker contrast. This is one reason why we still think foreign investors will continue to see a stronger case for diversification ahead, especially when there are signs of a less-welcoming environment for foreign investors in US assets. As a result, while Dollar depreciation may be shifting to a new phase, we still think it is here to stay. Given the confirmation of a slowdown in US activity and a shift in global investor appetite, we are rolling our EUR/USD forecasts to 1.17, 1.20 and 1.25 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 1.12, 1.15 and 1.20, which we established after the Liberation Day announcement)."

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