FED: US TSY TO SELL $82.000 BLN 26W BILL NOV 09, SETTLE NOV 12

We've published our latest US Treasury Deep Dive - PDF here

• The next month will be one of the most intriguing in some time for the Treasury policy outlook. On November 2 we get the latest Treasury financing estimates, on November 3 the midterm elections could shift the outlook for fiscal policy and the debt limit, and on November 4 we get the quarterly Refunding announcement.
• We’ll publish a full Refunding preview on October 30 looking at the above, and while we don’t expect any changes in the coupon issuance profile next month and we don’t expect changes until May 2027, risks of a shift as soon as February 2027 or even November have risen.
• Monthly Auction Review: September’s coupon auctions were a tale of two extremes. At the start of the month, each of the 3-, 10- and 30-year auctions traded through. However, performance was much weaker through the remainder on the month, amid a notable curve-wide sell-off in global rates.

• The dollar corrected lower on Tuesday, to back markets off the greenback cycle high posted just 24 hours earlier. The move looks consolidative and corrective in nature rather than a full reversal, and has allowed the overbought condition in the 14-day RSI to course-correct back below 70.00.
• Previous overbought phases for the dollar this year have not resolved in full reversals in the currency, but a short period of consolidation before further gains resume. As such, the underlying bull theme in the dollar continues, despite today's pullback. EUR, CAD and NZD all posted cycle lows against the USD this week, so no real surprise to see these currencies posting the largest relief rallies Tuesday.
• A tightening of the French-German 10y yield spread helped boost the EUR, with a bounce in French government bonds proving it unlikely that the ECB will step in to support markets at these levels. As such, EURUSD has based back above the 1.1200 handle for now, but recoveries are still shy of 1.1291, first resistance that marks the 23.6% retracement of the pullback off the August high.
• USD weakness was similarly notable against the CNH, keeping USDCNH in a resolute downtrend and within range of both 6.70 handle support, as well as the YTD lows of 6.6912.
• The Reserve Bank of India are expected to raise rates by 25bps to 5.50% Wednesday, while German industrial production and the US NY Fed inflation expectations survey are the data highlights. Fed minutes are also due, at which market focus will shift to how many other governors on the board share NY Fed President Williams' view that only one further rate hike may be needed in 2026. 

*CHINA, EU TRADE OFFICIALS HOLD PREPARATORY VIDEO MEETING ON TUE" bbg