FED: US TSY TO SELL $50.000 BLN 52W BILL APR 14, SETTLE APR 16
Apr-09 16:05
* US TSY TO SELL $50.000 BLN 52W BILL APR 14, SETTLE APR 16...
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FED: US TSY TO SELL $69.000 BLN 17W BILL MAR 11, SETTLE MAR 17
Mar-10 16:05
- US TSY TO SELL $69.000 BLN 17W BILL MAR 11, SETTLE MAR 17
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Preview 3Y Note Auction
Mar-10 16:03
Treasury begins March's auction cycle today with $58B of 3Y Note at 1pm ET (CUSIP: 91282CQE4).
- Anything but a trade-through would be a disappointment, not least because the last six consecutive 3Y auctions have traded through, with a five-auction average trade-through of 0.6bp.
- The last five auctions have posted an average bid-to-cover of 2.69x with primary dealers taking 10.9% (indirects 62.3%, 26.9%).
- Given this recent history, the previous auction in February was unexceptional, with a 0.1bp trade-through (3.518% high yield vs. 3.519% WI), bid-to-cover of 2.62x, primary dealers taking 10.9% (indirects 57.2%, directs 31.9%).
- The current when-issued yield (indicated 3.56%) would mark a concession vs February's sale but otherwise the lowest since September 2025's auction, since when there have been 75bp of Fed cuts helping to bring down front-end yields.
- It's also a concession vs February's 3Y yield close which at 3.38% was the lowest since 2022.
- On the Treasury curve, 3s are a little cheaper than they were in late April, with the 2s-3s-5s fly backing up from -12.5bp to -11.6bp. Overall the curve is a little off the recent flats.
| High yield | When-issued yield | Trade through (tail) | High - Median Spread | Bid-to-cover | Primary Dealer Percent | Indirect Percent | Direct Percent | Offering Amount | |
| 5 auction avg | 3.579% | 3.585% | 0.6 | 4.5 | 2.69 | 10.88% | 62.26% | 26.86% | 58 |
| 10-Feb-26 | 3.518% | 3.519% | 0.1 | 5.0 | 2.62 | 10.94% | 57.15% | 31.92% | 58 |
| 12-Jan-26 | 3.609% | 3.610% | 0.1 | 4.9 | 2.65 | 14.00% | 56.50% | 29.50% | 58 |
| 8-Dec-25 | 3.614% | 3.622% | 0.8 | 4.4 | 2.64 | 9.03% | 71.97% | 19.00% | 58 |
| 10-Nov-25 | 3.579% | 3.589% | 1.0 | 3.9 | 2.85 | 9.72% | 62.96% | 27.32% | 58 |
| 7-Oct-25 | 3.576% | 3.584% | 0.8 | 4.2 | 2.66 | 10.72% | 62.70% | 26.58% | 58 |
US: Special Election In Georgia Likely To Bolster GOP Majority In House
Mar-10 16:00
Voting is underway in a special election in Georgia's 14th Congressional District to fill the seat in the House of Representatives vacated by former Republican Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene. President Donald Trump carried the solidly red district with 68% of the vote in 2024.
- According to Kalshi, the Trump-endorses Republican, state district attorney Clayton Fuller, is attributed an 84% implied probability of winning. The winner will need to secure 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff on April 7.
- PBS notes, "Trump's endorsement should be a boost for Fuller, considering Trump outperformed Greene across the district. But with the Democratic vote split among just three candidates compared with 12 for the GOP, Harris could snag one of the two runoff spots if he performs at his 2024 level."
- There are currently 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats in the House, with three vacancies, meaning House Speaking Mike Johnson (R-LA) can only lose one vote in any House vote. If Republicans secure the Georgia seat, it would restore Johnson's two-vote cushion.
- Fox News notes, "While Fuller is considered the favorite thanks to Trump's endorsement, with just three Democrats in the race, Harris has a shot of securing one of the two runoff spots..."
