FED: US TSY 4Y-10M TIPS AUCTION: HIGH YLD 1.955%; ALLOTMENT 36.10%

• RES 4: 1.1929 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 13 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.1857 High Feb 18
• RES 2: 1.1797/1849 High May 06 / Apr 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1662/1702 Intraday high / 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.1601 @ 16:50 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 1.1597 Base of a bear channel drawn from the Apr 17 high
• SUP 2: 1.1592 Low May 19
• SUP 3: 1.1578 61.8% retracement of the Mar 13 - Apr 17 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.1505 Low Apr 6

Today’s fresh cycle low in EURUSD reinforces the current bearish theme. Important support levels to watch lie at 1.1603, a Fibonacci projection, and 1.1597, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Apr 17 high - both levels were pierced Tuesday. Clearance of these price points would strengthen a bear theme and open 1.1578 initially, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial key resistance is at 1.1702, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a possible reversal.

US Vice President JD Vance is shortly due to stand in for Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, who is on maternity leave, at the White House press conference. The presser comes after Secretary of State Marco Rubio gave a polished performance filling in for Leavitt at the White House podium earlier in the month. The dueling public appearances have been viewed by some as a trial for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028. LIVESTREAM

• There will be significant focus on Vance's response to questions regarding the Iran conflict. Vance, an isolationist, has distanced himself from the conflict without explicitly criticising Trump's decision to join Israel in launching strikes on Iran. The NYT reported in a multi-byline April piece that, "Nobody in Mr. Trump’s inner circle was more worried about the prospect of war with Iran, or did more to try to stop it, than the vice president."
• The Financial Times reports that Trump's pivot away from Vance on foreign policy issues, including military intervention in Venezuela and Iran, might damage Vance's credibility in 2028. The FT also notes that Vance has had personal political setbacks that could damage his 2028 run, including when he "sought to rally support for Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, who suffered a landslide defeat in parliamentary elections days later."
• According to Polymarket, Vance (36%) is slightly more favoured than Rubio (25%) to pick up the GOP nomination. 

Israel’s Channel 12 is that Israel is readying its preparedness for a renewed U.S. attack on Iran that may occur in the coming days.

• There is a headline from Al Hadath on X that says “Israeli assessments indicate that Trump has made the decision to attack Iran and implementation is only a matter of time.” The headline misses a slight nuance in the article in that the decision to prepare stems from expectations of strikes that existed before Trump publicly announced a delay.
• “Although no official decision has yet been made, the Air Force is preparing for a scenario in which President Trump orders an attack, which could take place in the coming days,” N12 said.
• Trump claimed that he was an hour away from ordering the strike but chose to delay on request from Gulf allies. Gulf officials refuted this when asked by the WSJ.
• Channel 12 reported that Israel was surprised by the delay and was only informed last minute.
• N12 said Israel wants to avoid a prolonged conflict and would prefer a tight economic blockade, but this takes time to achieve results and events in Lebanon are limiting Israel’s ability to wait.
• There are also questions over the U.S. administration’s timetable as domestic political pressures mount.
• The delay suggests U.S. reluctance to resume military action as Iran still retains some drone and missile capacity and has threatened Gulf infrastructure. Washington must weigh the gains of fresh strikes against risks to regional energy and civilian assets, as a renewed campaign could strain ties with Arab allies already unhappy with uneven U.S. protection against Iranian attacks.