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Predictions markets are leaning slightly towards Trump-backed Republican candidate, former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, in his race against high-profile incumbent Thomas Massie (R-KY) in tomorrow's Republican primary election in Kentucky's fourth Congressional district. 

• The race, the most expensive House primary in history, is one of the most closely followed of the midterm cycle. Polls indicate Gallrein holds a slight lead. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will travel to Hebron, Kentucky, today to campaign on behalf of Gallrein, a highly unusual political intervention from a sitting Defense Secretary.
• Trump wrote on Truth Social, “Third Rate Congressman Thomas Massie, a Weak and Pathetic RINO from the Great Commonwealth of Kentucky, a place I love, and won big SIX TIMES, including all Primaries, must be thrown out of office, ASAP! He is the Worst “Republican” Congressman in History…”
• The race comes as Trump reasserts influence over the grassroots of the Republican party. Yesterday's Louisiana Senate primary saw Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA), a Republican lawmaker who voted to convict Trump in 2021, fail to make a runoff. Last month, five Republican state senators in Indiana were unseated by Trump-backed primary challengers in retaliation for rejecting a call to gerrymander the state’s House map.
• If the GOP holds the lower chamber in November, with a similarly narrow majority, Massie’s re-election could again provide a significant block to Trump’s legislative agenda for the remaining two years of his term. 

Figure 1: KY-04 Republican Primary Election

Source: Kalshi