Early Gilt outperformance against Bunds has consolidated through the session, with the 10-year Gilt/Bund spread still 4.5bps tighter at 214bps.
- 30s lead the recovery from Friday’s lows, with benchmark yields down 12.5bps at typing to 5.39%. This seems to represent an unwind of the weak price action last week, rather than any reassessment of UK economic fundamentals.
- Beta to US Treasuries will also be factoring in, with UST yields 4.5-11.0bps lower at typing.
- Gilt futures are +89 ticks at 91.53, just shy of earlier session highs of 91.61. The 20-day EMA at 91.84 remains initial resistance.
- The SONIA strip has twist flattened, with whites -1.0 to -2.0 ticks and blues +3.0 to +4.5 ticks.
- BOE-dated OIS price 23bps of easing through May (0.5bps more hawkish than Friday’s close), while August ’25 implied cuts have deepened 2bps to 48bps in today’s session.
- Labour market data headlines tomorrow’s macro calendar. Our preview will be out shortly.
Meeting Date | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-25 | 4.231 | -22.7 |
Jun-25 | 4.156 | -30.2 |
Aug-25 | 3.979 | -47.9 |
Sep-25 | 3.885 | -57.3 |
Nov-25 | 3.751 | -70.7 |
Dec-25 | 3.709 | -74.9 |
Feb-26 | 3.649 | -80.9 |
Apr-26 | 3.641 | -81.7 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg | | |