FED: US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $586 MLN FROM $72.000 BLN TOTAL

Friday's retail sales report will be the week's data highlight and round out the April activity picture - so far though, the start of Q2 is looking constructive overall after a weak showing in the prior two quarters.

• StatCan's April reports showed manufacturing sales growth of 4.2% missed the advance estimate of 4.6%; however, February was revised up to 3.4% from 3.0%. Conversely, wholesale sales (excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain) rose 0.6% (better than the 0.1% advance). The retail sales advance growth reading is 0.6% (was 0.9% in Mar) which would keep it growing at an 8+% quarterly clip.
• These are nominal figures; in constant dollars, total manufacturing sales rose a still-robust 1.8% M/M; wholesale (ex-petroleum etc) in contrast fell 0.3%.
• Manufacturing saw sales rise in 17 of the 21 subsectors, "led by the petroleum and coal product (+22.6%) and food (+2.9%) subsectors. Sales of primary metals (-4.6%) declined the most." In a continuation of manufacturing sale volatility, with for example auto production disruptions earlier in the year, a reopening of refineries boosted gains in April (up 17.5% M/M in real terms).
• Wholesale sales increased in 5 of the 7 subsectors, led by building material and supplies (+4.3%).
• After March's surprise 0.1% contraction helped Q1 as a whole record a shock contraction for a 2nd consecutive quarter, StatCan's advance GDP estimate for April is +0.4%, with "increases in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, manufacturing and transportation and warehousing ... partially offset by decreases in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting. " That will be finalized on June 30.

DUU6 106.00/106.30 1x1.5 call spread paper paid 6.5 on 4K.

US President Donald Trump is en route to the G7 summit taking place in France with Air Force One having landed in Geneva, Switzerland, a short time ago. Hinting at the sizeable number of sideline meetings that will take place over the course of the three-day summit, joining Trump is a sizeable group of cabinet and White House officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, USTR Jamieson Greer, and Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett.

• Before the leaders' dinner at the G7, Trump is due to hold a bilateral meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron. In a move that could sour talks before they have even begun, Macron said to TF1 earlier that, regarding Trump's threats to put 100% tariffs on French wine if the digital service tax hitting US tech giants is not removed, “It’s not the US that decides European or French law — that’s normal and it won’t be any different, at least as long as I am around.”
• Given the US Supreme Court's rulings to date, Trump could not impose such a tariff with emergency powers. Instead, a lengthy investigation would be required. Moreover, with less than a year remaining on his final term in office, Macron may prove more willing to stand up to Trump's aggressive tariff rhetoric, given he may not be the president to face the economic/political consequences.