AMERICAS OIL: US OIL: October 23 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Surges
Oct-23 18:35
US OIL: October 23 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Surges
WTI crude futures have surged to a two-week high after the US sanctioned Lukoil and Rosneft. India is likely to make cuts in Russian crude imports, while China oil majors are showing reluctance in buying Russian crude as a result of the sanctions, according to Reuters.
- Both prompt and longer-term time spreads have rallied with Dec25-Dec26 returning into backwardation.
- Following the UK, US restrictions will be imposed against Lukoil and state-run Rosneft, two of the largest producers, aimed at reducing revenues for Russia’s war.
- Indian refiners have said that the US measures against Rosneft and Lukoil will make it extremely difficult for them to continue using Russian crude.
- India’s top refiner Reliance said it will “recalibrate” Russian oil imports in line with government guidelines following Trumps targeted measures towards Rosneft and Lukoil.
- US sanctions against Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil are “the most material move to date by the United States to shutter the Russian war ATM,” according to RBC cited by Bloomberg.
- US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil are expected to trigger a short-term drop in exports and support oil prices as traders rebuild supply chains, according to Kpler.
- China oil majors are showing reluctance towards Russian barrels on Thursday as Western sanctions mount, Reuters reports.
- Kuwait’s oil minister said that OPEC was ready to offset any shortage in the market by rolling back output cuts.
- The spot premium for Middle Eastern benchmark Dubai has jumped on Thursday in reaction to the latest US sanctions on Russia, pushing India towards alternative suppliers.
- The EU’s 19th sanctions package adopted today includes Chinese entities Liaoyang Petrochemical, Chinaoil HK and Shandong Yulong Petrochemical, according to Reuters.
- Crack have diverged, with diesel holding gains while gasoline reversing into losses. Cracks had been supported earlier as the market digests the impacts of US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, alongside reports of further drone-related refinery disruption in Russia.
- WTI Dec futures were up 5.7% at $61.79
- WTI Jan futures were up 4.9% at $61.18
- RBOB Nov futures were up 3.3% at $1.93
- ULSD Nov futures were up 6.8% at $2.40
- US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 16.90$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 2.6$/bbl at 37.91/bbl
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Remains Above Support At The 50-Day EMA
Sep-23 18:30
- RES 4: 114-12 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 2: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 112-29+ @ 19:17 BST Sep 23
- SUP 1: 112-20+/112-15+ Low Sep 22 / High Aug 5 and 14
- SUP 2: 112-09 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
The pullback in Treasury futures from their recent highs appear corrective. Price has moved through the 20-day EMA, at 112-28+. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 112-08+ and the next key support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 113-29, the Sep 11 high.
BOC: GLOBAL TRADE, US BUDGET imbalances THREATEN MKT STABILITY
Sep-23 18:15
- BOC: GLOBAL TRADE, US BUDGET IMBALANCES THREATEN MKT STABILITY
- BOC SAYS TRUMP TARIFFS HURT US DOLLAR'S ROLE AS RESERVE ASSET
- BOC SAYS IT CAN'T UNDO TARIFF DAMAGE, ONLY STABILIZE ECONOMY
BOC: Ahead Of Macklem Speech, Next Cut Not Fully Priced Until January
Sep-23 18:01
Reminder that BOC Governor Macklem speaks soon on "Global trade and capital flows" before the Saskatchewan Trade and Export Partnership and the Greater Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce - timing of approximately 1430ET. Macklem will take reporters' questions at around 1545ET.
- Livestream link here
- Implied BOC meeting cut pricing is little changed this week so far, with October's pointing to around 55-60% implied probability of a follow-up 25bp rate cut (~14bp, depending on your CORRA assumptions), and a 25bp cut fully priced cumulatively by January. There's still only one full cut still seen for the cycle, though.
- Indeed, pricing hasn't changed much since last week's post-meeting press conference, in which Macklem entertained questions about what would trigger a further cut. The overall communications highlighted risks to growth and employment alongside what the BOC sees as better-contained inflationary pressures than had been feared in the summer. MNI's review of the meeting is here
- He continually mentioned the need for a balanced approach to future rate-setting, moving meeting-by- meeting and keeping the next decision in October live. This was summed up by his comment: “what we can do is help the economy adjust while maintaining wellcontrolled inflation. That's what we're focused on... it's going to be about balancing those risks. If the risks tilt, if the risks shift, we're prepared to take action, and if the risks tilt further, we're prepared to take more action, but we're going to take it one meeting at a time. We are taking a shorter horizon. We're being a little less forward looking than usual, and we'll make that risk assessment in October when we get there."
| Meeting | Current | Last Week's Close (Sep 19) | Change since then | Cumulative Change From Current Rate (bp) |
| Oct 29 2025 | 2.40 | 2.41 | -0.8 | -14.3 |
| Dec 10 2025 | 2.32 | 2.32 | -0.1 | -22.3 |
| Jan 28 2026 | 2.28 | 2.27 | 0.5 | -26.9 |
| Mar 18 2026 | 2.23 | 2.25 | -1.3 | -31.1 |
| Apr 29 2026 | 2.20 | 2.22 | -1.7 | -34.2 |
