AMERICAS OIL: US OIL: July 10- Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Falls

Jul-10 18:32

US OIL: July 10- Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Falls 

WTI Oil ended lower as markets take an optimistic approach to current mediation efforts to de-escalate tensions between the US and Iran. Trump confirmed talks would continue though also said the ceasefire was over, muddying the situation for markets.

  • Baker Hughes US Total Rigs rose 1 to 581 Rigs for the week ending July 10th, up 44 from the prior year. Canada total rigs declined 11 to 179 rigs for the week ending July 10th, up 17 from the prior year.
  • Overall, the lack of fighting would indicate both sides remain committed to diplomacy though the status of the Strait of Hormuz also remains unclear.
  • Oil remains higher for the week as traffic out of the Persian Gulf slows.
  • All the major Gulf producers had been scaling up output over recent Middle East optimism. Saudi allocations, soon to be reported, will help indicate how much hope they have of transit recovering.
  • US Central Command said “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz,” according to a post on X.
  • Crude came under slight pressure earlier from the latest IEA report, which suggested that the UAE’s oil output hit a record high of 4.1m b/d in June, higher than previous estimates from other outlets.
  • The IEA has downgraded its projections for Russian oil production owing to Ukrainian attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure, Reuters reports.
  • US justice department says it files proposed settlement with owner and operator of Keystone pipeline to resolve clean water act violations for 2022 pipeline rupture in Kansas.
  • Monroe Energy's 208,000 b/d Trainer, Pa., refinery is currently operating at 75% of its throughput capacity following a June 25 fire, and the facility is expected to be affected by "a tail of outage" into the third quarter, Delta Air Lines Chief Financial Officer Erik Snell said Friday.
  • US oil refiners are expected to have about 270,000 bpd of capacity offline for the week ending July 10, increasing available refining capacity by 125,000 bpd, research company IIR Energy said on Friday. Offline capacity is expected to decrease to 200,000 bpd in the week ending July 17 and further to 89,000 bpd in the subsequent week, IIR added.
  • Cracks ended lower today as markets assess continued US efforts to reach a diplomatic agreement with Iran.
    • WTI Aug futures were down 1% at $71.41/bbl
    • WTI Sep futures were down 0.8% at $71.35/bbl
    • RBOB Aug 26 down 1.7% at 2.99$/gal
    • ULSD Aug 26 down 0.5% at 3.55$/gal
    • US gasoline crack down 1.8$/bbl at 54.00$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.3$/bbl at 77.89$/bbl 

Historical bullets

BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Bear Flattening On US Sabre-Rattling

Jun-10 18:31

European curves bear flattened Wednesday.

  • Once again, it was US-Iran developments that dominated price action, with global bonds weakening in early trade as President Trump took to social media to threaten further strikes ("now they will have to pay the price!!!")
  • The US CPI report was largely in line with expectations, though a soft-leaning core goods reading meant a slightly dovish reaction and a report of US-Iran talks continuing helped soothe core bonds for most of the European afternoon.
  • Yields began to rise again toward the cash close, though, with 10Y Bunds closing near the session highs as Trump said the US would be attacking Iran "hard".
  • On the day, both the German and UK curves bear flattened, with Bunds underperforming slightly.
  • Periphery / semi-core EGB spreads widened modestly.
  • Thursday's focus will be the ECB decision - MNI's preview is here.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany:

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 5bps at 2.718%, 5-Yr is up 4.3bps at 2.801%, 10-Yr is up 3.3bps at 3.076%, and 30-Yr is up 1.5bps at 3.606%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 3.4bps at 4.365%, 5-Yr is up 3bps at 4.49%, 10-Yr is up 2.8bps at 4.931%, and 30-Yr is up 2.5bps at 5.616%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 1.6bps at 77.4bps / French OAT up 0.8bps at 77.4bps  

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

Jun-10 18:30
  • RES 4: 161.46 1.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
  • RES 3: 161.00 round number resistance 
  • RES 2: 160.72 High Apr 30 and the bull trigger 
  • RES 1: 160.53 High Jun 10
  • PRICE: 160.47 @ 17:09 BST Jun 10
  • SUP 1: 159.44 20-day EMA 
  • SUP 2: 158.85/157.32 50-day EMA / Low May 14 
  • SUP 3: 156.78 Low May 12
  • SUP 4: 156.41 Uptrendline drawn off Apr’ 25 low

USDJPY is holding on to its latest gains and a bull cycle remains in play. Sights are on key resistance at 160.72, the Apr 30 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the uptrend. Note that a breach would also cancel an existing bear threat highlighted by the large bear candle on Apr 30 - it is still possible that the recovery since May 6 is a correction. Initial firm support is 158.85, the 50-day EMA. A break of it would signal a possible reversal.   

OPTIONS: Aug And Sep Euribor Call Structure Buying Continues On ECB Eve

Jun-10 18:18

Wednesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

  • RXN6 125.50/124.00 put spread 5.2K given at 51 vs. 125.22
  • ERQ6 97.56/97.68/97.81c fly, bought for 1.25 in 6k
  • ERQ6 97.50/62 call spread paper paid 2.5 on 4K
  • ERQ6 97.50/97.62/97.68/97.87 broken call condor, bought for 2.25 in 4k
  • ERU6 97.56/97.75/97.93 call fly paper paid 2.25 on 10K
  • ERU6 97.25/97.37/97.56/97.68c condor, bought fore 6.5 in 8.5k