AMERICAS OIL: US OIL: August 12- Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Steady

• RES 4: 1.1601 Trendline resistance drawn from the Apr 17 high
• RES 3: 1.1525 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 1.1500 Low Jun 8
• RES 1: 1.1473 High Jul 02
• PRICE: 1.1386 @ 19:24 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 1.1362/25 Low Jul 1 / Low Jun 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1299 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1210 Low May 29 ‘25
• SUP 4: 1.1111 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull leg 

Recent gains in EURUSD appear to have been corrective. The pair has recently pierced resistance around the 20-day EMA - at  1.1449. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery, towards 1.1525, the 50-day EMA. A bearish trend condition remains intact, highlighted by MA studies that are in a bear-mode position. The bear trigger is 1.1325, the June 24 low. Clearance of it would mark a resumption of the downtrend.

• *JMIC: US CENTCOM BLOCKADE INCL. ALL IRAN PORTS, COASTAL AREAS
• *JMIC: BLOCKADE WON'T IMPEDE NEUTRAL PASSAGE THROUGH HORMUZ
• *JMIC: FURTHER DELIBERATE HOSTILE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LIKELY
• *JMIC: NOT COMPLYING COULD LEAD TO ESCALATION, DESTRUCTIVE FIRE

• RES 4: 110-28+ High May 7, 2026
• RES 3: 110-14   38.2% retracement of the Mar 2 - May 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 109-25+/110-10+ High Jul 7 / High Jun 26
• RES 1: 109-12   High Jul 10 
• PRICE:‌‌ 108-21+ @ 19:08 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 108-20+ Intraday low
• SUP 2: 108-08+ Low May 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108-04   1.500 proj of Apr 17 - May 4 - 7 swing
• SUP 4: 107-29   1.618 proj of Apr 17 - May 4 - 7 swing

A short-term bear cycle in Treasuries remains intact for now and last week’s move lower plus today’s bearish start to the week, reinforces a bear threat. Support at 108-25, the Jun 8 low, has been breached. The break exposes key support and the bear trigger is 108-08+, the May 19 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 109-12, the Jul 7 high. A break of it would be bullish and signal a possible short-term corrective reversal.