ENERGY: US Oil and Gas Rigs Down 7 on Week at 547: Baker Hughes

• US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.071%; ALLOTMENT 23.12%
• US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 9.24% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 12.39% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 78.37% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 5Y AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.39

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1453 76.4% retracement of the Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg    
• PRICE: 1.1298 @ 16:16 BST May 28
• SUP 1: 1.1277 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1151/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle   
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10

Trend conditions in EURUSD are bullish and MA studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The latest pullback is corrective. The Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg also appears to have been a correction. A resumption of gains would open 1.1453, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support is 1.1151, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. 

• Fed Funds implied rates have consistently pushed higher since around 0830ET today, with no material headlines or data behind the move.
• The Dec’25 implied rate is within 0.5bp of overnight Monday levels (ahead of a thin Memorial Day session) that were the most hawkish since February.
• Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp Jun, 5.5bp Jul, 17bp Sep, 28.5bp Oct and 45bp Dec.
• The SOFR implied yield is 8bp higher on the day at 3.334% (SFRZ6), back a little firmer within ranges over the past two and a half weeks after closing yesterday at their most dovish since May 9.
• The upcoming 5Y auction could drive a reaction in front rates before the FOMC minutes at 1400ET.