AMERICAS OIL: US natural gas stockpiles seen up 53 bcf last week - RTRS

Treasuries gave back some of Friday's month end gains on Monday, with the cash curve lightly bear steepening.

• Yields ticked up at the open from Friday's multi-week lows, with a prevailing negative tone on US assets (weaker USD and equities) following Friday's post-close announcement by President Trump that the administration would double steel and aluminum tariffs.
• Most of the session's data was on the soft side of expectations if somewhat stagflationary, with May's ISM manufacturing below-expected (with weak sub-components, albeit prices paid in-line), and construction spending contracting again in April.
• But reaction was muted and yields would head to session highs and stay there after Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q2 was upgraded to 4.6% (from 3.8%) and equities turned positive into the cash close. Fed speakers (Logan, Goolsbee, Powell) likewise saw no discernable reaction.
• Yields were set to close near the highs: the 2-Yr yield is up 4.3bps at 3.9407%, 5-Yr is up 5.4bps at 4.0156%, 10-Yr is up 5.9bps at 4.4596%, and 30-Yr is up 6.3bps at 4.9935%.
• Sep 10-Yr futures (TY) are down 8.5/32  at 110-15.5 (L: 110-13.5 / H: 110-30), having fallen just through Friday's lows in orderly fashion.
• Tuesday's calendar includes factory orders and JOLTS data, with an appearance by Fed's Cook among other speakers, while the week's focus is Friday's employment report for May.

Following are the expected Instant Answers for the Bank of Canada interest-rate decision Wed at 945am EST:

• Overnight Rate Target  
• Does the Bank signal it is prepared to LOWER rates in the future? 
• Does the Bank signal it is prepared to RAISE rates in the future? 
• Does the Bank signal it intends to leave rates on hold?
• Does the Bank mention core inflation has been elevated or above the 2% target for headline CPI?
• Does the Bank say the trade war is boosting inflation or inflation expectations?
• Does the Bank say the risks to growth from the trade war appear to have eased?

• RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6         
• RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 and bull trigger / High Nov 8 2024 
• RES 1: 164.26 High May 29 
• PRICE: 163.12 @ 16:37 BST Jun 2 
• SUP 1: 162.50/161.09 50-day EMA / Low May 23 and key support
• SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 3: 160.01 50% Retracement Feb’25 - May’25 Upleg
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

The latest recovery in EURJPY signals the end of the corrective pullback between May 13 - 23. If correct, the move higher also marks a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal and suggest scope for a deeper correction. Sights are on 165.21, the May 13 high and bull trigger. A break of this level would resume the uptrend.