LOOK AHEAD: US Macro Week Ahead: Q2 GDP and June PCE

• RES 4: 1.4328 1.764 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4292 61.8% Retracement Feb’25 - Jan’26 downleg
• RES 2: 1.4264 1.618 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing   
• RES 1: 1.4248 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 1.4223 @ 17:32 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 1.4095 Low Jun 18  
• SUP 2: 1.3996 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3876 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3837 Low Jun 3 

A strong impulsive bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and the pair continues to appreciate. The move higher signals scope for a climb towards 1.4292, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Feb ’25 - Jan ’26 downleg.  Note that the trend is in overbought territory. A corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. The first important support to watch lies at 1.3996, the 20-day EMA. 

• Stocks are mixed late Wednesday, scaling off decent gains after midday - trading desks citing near 5% drop in Bitcoin and renewed selling in chip stocks for second half retreat.
• Risk sentiment had improved earlier after after Pres Trump vowed Iran would not charge tolls for the Strait of Hormuz passage.
• In the meantime, crude prices fell (WTI -3.28 at $69.93/bbl) to the lowest levels since the start of the war, Treasury yields retreated (10Y -.0929 at 4.4040%), and projected rate hike pricing consolidated (October still pricing in 25bp rate hike, however).
• The DJIA outperformed, .35% after nearly cresting Wednesday's record high (appr 52,281), while SPX emini (-0.31%) and Nasdaq (-.7%).
• Consumer Durables & Apparel sector shares led gains at midday: Expedia Group, PulteGroup, Booking Holdings and DR Horton gaining 7.5% to 9.5%.
• The drop in crude prices weighed on oil and gas stocks, the following trading -2.5-3.5%:  APA Corp, ConocoPhillips, Chevron Corp, Diamondback Energy, Exxon Mobil Corp and Occidental Petroleum Corp.

• RES 4: 0.7223 High May 15
• RES 3: 0.7149/7201 High Jun 4 / High May 29
• RES 2: 0.7088 High Jun 15 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.7055 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6901 @ 17:31 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 0.6899/84 Bull channel base from Apr ‘25 low / Low Jun 24
• SUP 2: 0.6860 Low Apr 2 
• SUP 3: 0.6833 Low Mar 30 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6757 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - May 6 bull cyle

A short-term bear cycle in AUDUSD remains in play and this week’s extension reinforces the current trend condition. Price has arrived at a key support at 0.6899, the Apr 7 low and the base of a bull channel drawn from Apr ‘25 low. The support has been pierced, a clear channel breakout would strengthen the bear theme and open 0.6833, the Mar 30 low and a key support. Key S/T resistance has been defined at 0.7088, the Jun 15 high.