LOOK AHEAD: US Macro Week Ahead: Preliminary NFP Benchmark Revision (Friday)

Warsh’s FOMC colleagues were about as communicative as they’ve ever been on their outlook for rates and the economy, however. We recap all the key inter-meeting commentary below. Starting with the permanent voters: traditionally, the Board's leadership has communicated the Chair's current thinking to markets. If that's still the case, a hike looks unlikely to materialize in July. 

• Here we are thinking about NY Fed’s Williams who while noting that the Fed shouldn’t over-emphasize a single soft month of data reiterated that inflation was too high now but was expected to recede in the coming quarters, and that policy "continues to be well-positioned".
• Vice Chair Jefferson also said that interest rates are currently well positioned to deal with a mix of economic shocks from AI to the Iran war, amidst "a delicate balancing act" for the FOMC, and he didn't express urgency to hike rates: "in a scenario where actual inflation does not start to cool down soon, I believe that it could be appropriate to reconsider our current policy stance".
• Those two would effectively have been thought of as speaking on Powell’s behalf under the previous regime, but it's not clear that they are expressing Warsh’s train of thought (aside from clear agreement on downplaying a single month’s data).
• In probably the most important (or at least, market-moving) commentary in the inter-meeting period, Gov Waller in a speech on July 13 came out with a notably more hawkish bias ahead of the June CPI report: "If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term". That saw rate implied July rate hike pricing jump to around 50/50 though of course, June data turned out to be soft.
• Gov Cook on July 15 maintained her wary tone on high inflation and suggested that she could support rate hikes this year. For now, "I see it as prudent to give a bit more time to observe how inflation unfolds from here." But "going forward...I believe the risks continue to be strongly weighted toward higher inflation", and "if we do not see signs of disinflation soon, I am prepared to act."
• The one FOMC member most likely to have put a 2026 cut in her June Dot Plot, Gov Bowman, hasn't spoken on current monetary policy since the June meeting. We also haven't heard from ex-Chair and now Governor Powell, or Governor Barr.

• RES 3: 133.32 - High Mar ‘26
• RES 2: 130.66 - Low Jan 21 
• RES 1: 128.04/42- 50-dma (cont) / High Jun 15 
• PRICE: 127.25 @ 20:46 BST Jul 22
• SUP 1: 126.27 - Low May 20
• SUP 2: 125.70 - Low Feb 1999
• SUP 3: 121.49 - 50.0% retrace of the 1990 - 2020 major bull leg 

JGB futures have pulled back from their recent highs. A bearish theme remains intact. A stronger resumption of weakness would expose 126.27, the May 20 low, where a break would confirm a continuation of the primary downtrend. Key near-term resistance is 128.42, the Jun 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would instead signal a short-term reversal and highlight a potential break of the 50-dma - at 128.04.

• RES 4: 0.7120 61.8% retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg 
• RES 3: 0.7088 High Jun 15  
• RES 2: 0.7071 50.0% retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.7027 High Jul 21  
• PRICE: 0.6994 @ 20:54 BST Jul 22
• SUP 1: 0.6974 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6907 Low Jul 8
• SUP 3: 0.6865 Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6757 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - May 6 bull cyle

AUDUSD is holding on to its latest gains. A bear cycle remains intact and - for now - the recent climb is considered corrective. The pair has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.7011. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger short-term bounce and signal scope for a continued retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.6865, the Jun 30 low. A breach of it would resume the downtrend.