LOOK AHEAD: US Macro Week Ahead: Payrolls

• RES 4: 1.4328 1.764 proj of the Jan 30 - Mar 31 - May 1 price swing  
• RES 3: 1.4248 High Jun 24 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.4239 High Jul 6
• RES 1: 1.4202/03 High Sep 29 / 30
• PRICE: 1.4197 @ 16:31 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 1.4016 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3973/3732 50-day EMA / Low Aug 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3715 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3672 Low May 12

A clear bull cycle in USDCAD remains in play and another fresh cycle high yesterday, reinforces current bullish conditions. The pair continues to trade above the 50-day EMA. Note too that last week’s gains confirmed a breach of 1.4126, the 76.4% retracement point of the Jun 24 - Aug 21 bear leg. This highlights potential for a climb towards 1.4248, the Jun 24 high and the next key resistance. First key support to watch lies at 1.3973, the 50-day EMA.  

• Treasuries look to finish weaker Wednesday, drifting near session lows for much of the second half. Curves continued to steepen, 2s10s hit 41.635 high - more than twice last week's low with short end rates maintaining support following yesterday's speech by NY Fed President Williams, bonds pressed by energy inflation concerns on higher crude (WTI appr $90.50/bbl).
• MNI readers had ample time to position for the move with our Policy team writing last Friday: MNI POLICY: Fed In No Hurry But Committed To Taming Inflation - "Federal Reserve officials do not appear to be in a hurry to increase interest rates, or worried that they have fallen behind the curve. Instead they are signaling a considered and deliberate approach to further tightening after raising  the fed funds rate last week for the first time in three years, seeing no need to rush while reiterating their commitment to breaking the lingering fever of inflation."
• Current rate hike projections vs. late Tuesday levels (*): Oct'26 at +9.1bp (+12.9bp), Dec'26 +29.7bp (+33.7bp), Jan'27 +43.4bp (+47.2bp), Mar'27 +61.9bp (+66.2bp).
• On data: September's ADP payrolls report showed private employment gains of 90k vs the 75k expected and well up from the 36k (rev from 38k). It's probably not a major needle-mover for Friday's BLS nonfarm payrolls report given that it's only slightly on the high side of expectations for "official" private employment gains (+75k primary dealer median, +80k Bloomberg median) but offers further evidence of a solid labor market after some summer softness.
• August Personal Income and Outlays report both indicated robust real spending outright for the month as well as slightly recast the narrative over the US consumer in a positive direction after annual revisions. Real personal spending growth exceeded expectations in August at 0.6% M/M, the best since March 2025, though the "beat" vs 0.5% consensus was accounted for entirely by the 0.1pp "miss" in core PCE inflation which was attributed largely to uncertainty over methodological revisions.
• Nothing new here from Gov Cook who said Monday that the labor market was well-positioned to handle higher rates and appeared to suggest that she could support further hikes. Similar comments today: "the fact remains that inflation has been too high for too long...As you know, I voted along with the rest of the FOMC to raise rates 25 basis points at the recent September meeting. I am committed to returning inflation to our objective while preserving the strength in the labor market,"
• Look ahead: Ongoing China bank holiday. Tokyo CPI, On to Europe: Swiss CPI,  Italian, French and German PMI; US ISM Manufacturing PMI and weekly claims. Main focus on Friday’s US employment data.

Pres Trump on Truth Social discussing the Inspector General's report on the Fed renovation: "This is Jerome Powell’s fault, and he should be forced to resign, IMMEDIATELY! If he doesn’t resign, he should be sued, at the highest level, by the United States Government, for either corruption or incompetence, both of which are completely unacceptable...And no, I do not want this Building named after President Donald J. Trump, ME! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"