LOOK AHEAD: US Macro Week Ahead: July CPI/PPI Reports
- Wednesday’s July CPI report will be closely watched by the market after a surprisingly soft June report ended an otherwise strong run through 1H26.
- Senior FOMC members warned that they can’t take much signal from one ready reading after the previously strong run. That includes Chair Warsh along with Governor Waller who explicitly laid out his reaction function ahead of the June release, where he said he would need a couple soft reports to say it’s a signal.
- A second soft report here could bolster the dovish shift in markets since the late July FOMC and renewed Middle East de-escalation but equally a strong report could re-emphasis the concerns from a growing share of the committee on stubbornly high inflation.
- That could especially be the case after the market backlash to the FOMC decision and Warsh’s press conference with curves steepening on questions whether hawkish rhetoric will be met with action.
- We have currently seen unrounded core CPI forecasts in the range of 0.18-0.24% M/M for July after the far weaker than expected -0.02% m/m in June but will of course update in greater detail in the MNI US CPI Preview.
- Thursday then sees the PPI report which will firm up core PCE estimates along with giving the latest update on input cost pressures.
Date ET Impact Event
08/08/2026 1245 Fed's Michelle Bowman
11/08/2026 0600 ** NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
11/08/2026 0815 *** ADP Employment Report
11/08/2026 0855 ** Redbook Retail Sales Index
11/08/2026 1000 *** NAR existing home sales
12/08/2026 0700 ** MBA Weekly Applications Index
12/08/2026 0830 *** CPI
12/08/2026 1400 ** Treasury Budget
13/08/2026 0815 Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack
13/08/2026 0830 *** Jobless Claims
13/08/2026 0830 *** PPI
13/08/2026 0840 Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
14/08/2026 0830 *** Retail Sales
14/08/2026 1000 * Business Inventories
14/08/2026 1000 *** UMich Surveys of Consumers
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IRAN: Axios Article on Newest Strikes
A US official told Axios that Washington had struck military targets in the Strait of Hormuz
- The strikes on July 8th are wider in scope than the strikes on the day before, said the official.
- Targets include Iranian military coastal radars, anti-ship missile positions, and air defense systems.
- See article here: https://www.axios.com/2026/07/08/us-strikes-iran-targets-strait-of-hormuz-second-day
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 0.7223 High May 15
- RES 3: 0.7149/7201 High Jun 4 / High May 29
- RES 2: 0.7088 High Jun 15 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6969/0.7029 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 0.6935 @ 21:19 BST Jul 8
- SUP 1: 0.6865 Low Jun 30
- SUP 2: 0.6833 Low Mar 30 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6757 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - May 6 bull cyle
- SUP 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 2025
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has recently pierced a key support marked by the base of a bull channel drawn from the Apr ‘25 low - currently at 0.6933. A clear channel breakout would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 0.6833, the Mar 30 low and a key support. Key short-term resistance is 0.7088, the Jun 15 high. Initial resistance is at 0.6969, the 20-day EMA.
IRAN: US Centcom Confirms Strikes
“At the direction of the Commander in Chief, U.S. Central Command forces have started conducting additional strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway.”
