LOOK AHEAD: US Macro Week Ahead: GDP/PCE Reports (Wednesday)
Wednesday sees the second release for Q2 national accounts along with the July PCE report, both at 0...
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (U6) Bear Cycle In Play
- RES 3: 95.636 - 76.4% retrace of Oct’ 25 - Jan’ 26 downleg (cont)
- RES 2: 95.472 - 61.8% retrace of Oct’ 25 - Mar’ 26 downleg (cont)
- RES 1: 95.270/95.425 - High Jun 26 / High Mar 2 (cont)
- PRICE: 94.980 @ 20:26 BST Jul 22
- SUP 1: 94.891 - Trendline drawn from the Mar 30 low (cont)
- SUP 2: 94.780 - Low Mar 23 / 30 low (cont) and a key M/T support
- SUP 3: 94.664 - 76.4% retracement of the 2008 - 2020 rally
A short-term bear cycle in Aussie 10-yr futures is in play, however, recent weakness appears corrective and a M/T bullish trend sequence remains intact. The move lower does signal scope for a deeper retracement. Support at 94.985, the Jun 9 low, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open 94.780, the Mar 23 / 30 low on the continuation chart and a key medium-term support. The bull trigger is 95.270, the Jun 26 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 164.93 2.236 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 9 - Feb 12 price swing
- RES 3: 164.36 Top of a bull channel drawn from Feb 12 low
- RES 2: 163.62 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 9 - Feb 12 price swing
- RES 1: 163.24 High Jul 21
- PRICE: 163.15 @ 20:26 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 162.05/161.28 20-day EMA / Low Jul 10
- SUP 2: 161.00 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 159.58 Low Jun 11
- SUP 4: 158.74 Low May 25
Bullish conditions in USDJPY remain intact and Tuesday’s rally reinforces this theme. The break of 162.84, the Jul 1 high and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens 164.36, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 12 low. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support is 161.00, the 50-day EMA.
US TSYS: US/Iran Tit-for-Tat Threats, Crude Surges, Projected Rate Hikes Rising
- Treasuries look to finish near late session lows Wednesday - initial weakness after Pres Trump threatened Iran with bombing of bridges & power plants, including Tehran in response to any attacks on ships transiting the Hormuz Strait.
- Iran responded in-turn: "If the Americans target a bridge or a power plant in Iran, Iran will, in turn, strike infrastructure and bridges in the region, including energy facilities where the United States has interests."
- TYU6 fell to 108-12 low (-8.5), 10y yield +.0345 at 4.6626%. Key technical support lies at 108-08+, the May 19 low and a bear trigger. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend.
- WTI Oil prices ended higher. Global supply risks remain high with limited traffic in the Persian Gulf, threats to shipping in the Red Sea, and CPC disruption.
- Heavy selling in short end (FFQ6 -0.030 at 96.28) as projected rate hike pricing gains momentum vs. late Tuesday levels (*): Jul'26 at +8.4bp (+6.5bp), Sep'26 at +24.6bp (+20.7bp), Oct'26 at 31.9bp (28bp), Dec'26 42.1bp (+37.9bp).
- Looking ahead to Thursday: Australian employment data, Turkey and ECB rate announcements, Judo Bank Flash Australia and Japan PMI data late Thursday.
