US NATGAS: US LNG: Daily Flows by Facility - Sep 10

• MNI: US 10 AUG EFFECTIVE FED FUNDS RATE 3.63% (UNCH VS PRIOR)
• EFFR PERCENTILES: 25TH 3.62% (UNCH); 1ST 3.60% (UNCH)
• EFFR PERCENTILES: 75TH 3.63% (UNCH); 99TH 3.65% (UNCH)
• US 10 AUG EFFR VOLUME USD 108 BLN (117 BLN PRIOR)

Retail sales appear to have begun August where they left off in July, with the Johnson Redbook index up 8.3% Y/Y in the week ending Aug 8. That's up a little from the 8.2% recorded in July, and suggests that while nominal sales have come down from their May/June highs (which appeared boosted by higher Y/Y prices), they remain strong.

• Consensus for Friday's advance July Census Bureau retail sales report is for a 0.1% M/M rise in overall sales (0.2% prior) with  ex-auto/gas +0.3% (0.4% prior), for the latter that would correspond to roughly a 5.3% Y/Y rate of growth (vs 5.7% June, 6.1% May) which would  maintain the recent negative gap vs Redbook sales. The Y/Y slowdown is in nominal terms so reflects some fading of inflation pressures too. The Chicago Fed's Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS) eyes a 0.1% M/M advance in ex-auto sales (vs 0.2% consensus), translating into flat real sales growth.
• The Redbook anecdotal section mentions tariff refunds as a potential boost to retailers though doesn't suggest that the savings will be passed on to customers: "Shoppers are trying to make the most of their buying power during the back-to-school period. At present, most stores are halfway between summer clearance and the back-to-school season. Sales were boosted by the back-to-school sales tax holidays in Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia. At the same time, companies are about to release their second-quarter earnings in the coming weeks, and retailers are entering the second half of the year with caution. Refunds under the IEEPA tariff may provide retailers with capital and liquidity."

• MNI: US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +8.3% WK ENDED AUG 08 VS YR AGO WK
• US REDBOOK: AUG STORE SALES +8.3% VS YR AGO MO