IRAN: U.S. ISSUES NEW IRAN-RELATED SANCTIONS - MAHAN AIR

• RES 4: 1.1641 Trendline resistance drawn from the Apr 17 high
• RES 3: 1.1570 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 1.1489 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1439 High Jun 23  
• PRICE: 1.1417 @ 16:57 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 1.1325 Low Jun 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1299 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1210 Low May 29 ‘25
• SUP 4: 1.1111 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull leg 

Recent gains in EURUSD appear corrective and the current downtrend remains intact. This is highlighted by MA studies that are in a bear-mode position. A key support at 1.1411, the Mar 13 / 16 low, has been breached. The break strengthens the bear theme and confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Sights are on 1.1299, the 2.00 projection of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing. Firm resistance is 1.1496, the 20-day EMA. 

• The US dollar is trading with modest gains on Tuesday after a fairly volatile trading session. Initial strength appeared to just be unwinding yesterday’s decline, before month/quarter end dynamics then weighed heavily. Lows for the DXY were put in right on the WMR fix, with the index modestly recovering heading into the APAC crossover.
• Stronger equity benchmarks have underpinned a solid session for the likes of AUD and NZD, while a plethora of headwinds continue to place pressure on the Japanese yen.
• Primarily, USDJPY’s break above 161.95 and 162.00 overnight has taken away the notion of any line in the sand for the MoF. This has then allowed higher core yields, an aggressive steepening of the JGB curve and firmer equities to provide additional fundamental tailwinds to the bullish technical backdrop for the pair.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama’s comments overnight did not necessarily up the ante, as she reiterated that 'decisive' action was an option in the FX market in accordance with her US counterparts. Scope is seen for a USDJPY extension towards 163 and 163.56, the top of a bull channel drawn from Feb 12 low.
• Separately, price action overnight saw GBPAUD print a fresh recovery high of 1.9281. This high closely coincided with the first notable Fibonacci retracement level of the 2025-2026 range, and interestingly, price has subsequently pulled back below 1.92 since.
• Japan’s second quarter Tankan survey is due Wednesday, before Eurozone HICP inflation and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data. There will also be focus on central bank speaker’s at the ECB’s forum in Sintra, headlined by Fed Chair Warsh.

Tuesday's 

• ERQ6 97.37/97.50/97.62c fly 1x3x2, bought for 1.75 up to 2 in 5k
• ERZ6 97.56/97.68cs vs 97.18p, bought the cs for flat in 5k
• ERZ6 97.56/68/81 call fly vs. 97.18/06 put spread paper paid 1.75 on +10K for the call fly
• ERH7 97.93/98.00/98.06/98.12c condor, bought for 0.25 in 5k
• ERH7 97.81//97.93/98.00c fly, 1x3x2, bought for half in 2.5k
• ERM7 97.81//97.93/98.00c fly, 1x3x2, bought for 1.25 in 2.5k
• ERM7 97.93/98.00/98.06/98.12c condor, bought for 0.25 in 5k
• 2RQ6 97.12/97.25/97.37c fly, bought for 1.5 in 5k
• SFIZ6 96.15/25/35 call fly vs. 95.80/95.65 put spread paper paid 0.75 on 5K for the call fly
• SFIH7 97.50/97.75cs, bought for 0.25 in 6k