LOOK AHEAD: US GDP Revisions, Claims, 7Y Supply And Fedspeak

• In the equity space, the corrective bull cycle in S&P E-Minis that started on Apr 7, remains in play. The contract has breached a number of important short-term resistance points. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced 5528.75, the Apr 10 high. The next key resistance is 5619.66, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen a bull theme. Initial key support lies at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. A break would be bearish. First support lies at 5355.25, the Apr 24 low.
• EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a positive tone and are holding on to their recent gains. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 5101.76. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle and signal scope for a continuation of the corrective uptrend. This would open 5165.00 next, the Apr 3 high. Support to watch lies at 4812.00, the Apr 16 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. First support lies at 4959.00, the Apr 23 low.

• Spread set earlier at MS+52bps (guidance was MS +54bps area)
• Size: E4bln (in line with MNI expectation)
• Books closed in excess of E23.5bln (inc E750mln JLM interest)
• Coupon: Short first coupon
• Settlement: 7 May 2025 (T+5)
• Maturity: 15 September 2035
• ISIN: FI4000587415
• Bookrunners: BNPP (DM/B&D) / Citi / CACIB / GSBE SE / Nordea
• Timing: Books to close at 10:15BST / 11:15CET

Belgium HICP inflation fell to 3.1% Y/Y in April according to the Statbel flash estimate, a 0.5pp drop from March's 3.6% and the lowest rate since January 2024. National CPI (non-HICP) inflation meanwhile also decelerated, to 2.55% from March's 2.91%.

• Sticking to the non-HICP details, core CPI (ex energy & unprocessed food) printed 2.82% Y/Y (2.71% prior), at least partially driven by services increasing to 3.96% (3.88% prior).
• Statbel points out that airfares and hotel rooms added 0.125 points to headline in April vs March - suggesting that the later timing of Easter this year had an upward impact here, something analysts expect to be observed Eurozone-wide
• "Food inflation (including alcoholic beverages) rose to 2.48% [Y/Y] this month, compared to 2.45% the previous month."
• "Energy inflation fell from 5.48% in March to 0.95% in April, contributing 0.09 percentage points to total inflation." Taking into account a 0.59pp contribution in March, energy was the main downside driver this time - as expected for the Eurozone-wide HICP print.
• For context, Belgium makes up 3.9% of the total Eurozone HICP basket in 2025.