US TSYS: Unwinding Post FOR Sell-Off, Curves Stubbornly Flat on Hike Projection
* Treasuries are well supported after the bell - near session highs as rates unwind nearly all of ...
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CANADA: "Trump is weighing whether to grant Canada a tariff reprieve" -Politico
Politico reports: "A deal between the U.S. and Canada to stave off new tariffs on Canadian goods is now on President Donald Trump’s desk, according to three people familiar with the discussions who were granted anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks. Now it’s up to Trump whether the 50 percent duty goes into effect, as scheduled, at midnight."
EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 186.11 1.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 3: 186.05 Low Jul 28
- RES 2: 185.56 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 184.91 High Aug 18
- PRICE: 184.80 @ 16:30 BST Aug 18
- SUP 1: 183.16 Low Aug 12
- SUP 2: 181.33/179.37 Low Aug 7 / 3 and key support
- SUP 3: 178.82 High Oct 30 2025
- SUP 4: 177.15 Low Nov 10 2025
EURJPY continues to retrace the sharp sell-off between Jul 29 - Aug 3. For now, gains are considered corrective. However, the cross has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs, strengthening the current recovery. This paves the way for a climb towards 185.56, a Fibonacci retracement and the next important S/T resistance. For bears, a reversal would highlight the end of the correction and refocus attention on 179.37, the Aug 3 low and key support.
CANADA: Bloomberg: US, Canada Dig In on Tariff Negotiations as Deal Hopes Fade
USDCAD hits session highs above 1.3900 as Bloomberg reports: "President Donald Trump’s administration is downplaying expectations for a last-minute deal with Canada to avert fresh tariffs set to take effect Wednesday, people familiar with the matter said. The US has signaled privately that the chances of a deal on Tuesday are a coin flip or worse, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe confidential discussions... It’s not clear whether those signals represent the true state of negotiations or an attempt to increase leverage."
- "Trump — who routinely makes last-minute demands from trading partners — is scheduled to speak again with Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday, some of the people said...A Carney-Trump call would be a last-ditch effort to reach an agreement, and even that is considered a long shot by US officials, the person said."
