US INFLATION: Unrounded Analyst Estimates Dovish On Core CPI
Jun-08 10:10
- Unrounded analyst estimates are in line with the broader Bloomberg survey for monthly headline CPI in May (median 0.50% vs BBG consensus 0.5) but are clearly more dovish when it comes to core (median 0.23% vs BBG consensus 0.3).
- This is the opposite to the set-up for April when the unrounded estimates correctly called a hotter figure (0.38% realized vs 0.36% median unrounded and 0.3 consensus).
- These thirteen analysts suggest it's a close call between 4.2 or 4.3% Y/Y (median 4.24) for headline CPI in May as it accelerates further from 3.81% Y/Y in April, 3.26% in March and two months at 2.4% in Jan-Feb.
- Core CPI Y/Y figures are generally quoted on a rounded basis although roughly suggest this could also be a close call between a 2.8-2.9% Y/Y print for a more modest acceleration after the 2.75% Y/Y in April, 2.60% in March and an average 2.5% in Jan-Feb.
- Limited estimates for core PCE currently look for another month where it exceeds core CPI, eyeing an acceleration from 0.24% M/M in April to ~0.30% M/M in May (range 0.24-0.37%). These estimates will be firmed up after CPI on Wednesday and then PPI on Thursday.
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