USD: Under continued pressure

• 5,000 SFRZ5 95.12/95.62 put spds ref 96.415
• 10,000 SFRK5 96.37/96.87 call spds vs 2,500 95.87 puts, 0.0 net vs. 95.925/0.78%
• -4,000 SFRU5 96.75/97.25 call spds, 4.5 ref 96.22

• US 10 Yield is slowly approaching the March and the 2025 low of 4.1040%, equates to 112.03+ today, just 1 big Tick away.
• Further out, would open to 4.0580%, the 61.8% retrace of the Sep/Jan range, this level equates to 112.12 today.

(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).

March light vehicle sales sales jumped by 11% M/M to a a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 17.77mln, per data released Tuesday evening by Wards Automotive Group. That's easily the highest total since April 2021, comprising 3.11mln cars and 14.65mln light trucks.

• Consumer anticipation of tariff impacts on prices, as well as some front-running in supply from automakers, was the main impetus.
• Per the Wards report, "March sales were proof that U.S. consumers are very much paying attention to tariffs... Buyers flocking to dealer lots to beat potential price increases, combined with some pre-tariff push by automakers raising deliveries to fleet customers lifted raw volume to over a 4-year high, not to mention a rare double-digit year-over-year gain."
• While this is likely to boost March retail sales data due out mid-month (and ex-autos growth was already looking fairly solid, per our note yesterday), the boon to the "hard" data may reverse in future months - per the report: "Regardless of any coming impacts from tariffs, March's booming results will cause lower volume in the second quarter due to the additional drain to dealer inventory that, based on industry norms, was already lean prior to the month."