LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

• RES 4: 1.1686 High May 29 
• RES 3: 1.1622 High Jun 15
• RES 2: 1.1587 50.0% retracement of the Apr 17 - Jun 24 bear leg  
• RES 1: 1.1545/59 Trendline drawn from Apr 17 high / Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.1533 @ 06:20 BST Aug 03
• SUP 1: 1.1439 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1353/25 Low Jul 28 / Low Jun 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1299 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1210 Low May 29 ‘25

EURUSD rallied last week. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, exposing the next key S/T hurdle at 1.1545, a trendline resistance drawn from the Apr 17 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of this line would highlight a stronger bull cycle. For now, it is likely that gains are corrective. Trend signals highlight a dominant downtrend. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.1353, the Jul 28 and a key support.

• RES 4: 127.06 High Jul 2 
• RES 3: 126.54 High Jul 7  
• RES 2: 125.52 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 125.06 20-day EMA          
• PRICE: 124.59 @ 05:59 BST Aug 03
• SUP 1: 124.03 Low Jul 23 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 123.93 Low May 20
• SUP 3: 123.77 Low May 18 and the M/T bear trigger
• SUP 4: 123.09 1.000 proj of the Jun 30 - Jul 8 - 10 price swing   

Bund futures remain below the Jul 28 high. The current trend theme is bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Note that the latest recovery allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Price recently breached support at 124.88, the Jun 10 and 11 low and a key level. This opens 123.77, the May 18 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 125.06, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 125.52.