RENEWABLES: UK Morning Wind Forecast

French June flash PMIs stronger than expected, particularly for services. There were no explicit mentions of the ceasefire agreement in the write-up, suggesting sentiment could continue to recover in the months ahead if the MOU proves durable. Output charge inflation eased from May’s levels – further evidence of more muted passthrough risks relative to 2022. 

• FRANCE JUN FLASH MANUF PMI 50.7 (50.1 EXP, 49.7 MAY)
• FRANCE JUN FLASH SERVICES PMI 47.4 (46.0 EXP, 44.3 MAY)
• FRANCE JUN FLASH COMPOSITE PMI 47.6 (46.0 EXP, 44.9 MAY)

Key notes from the release:

• “Both goods producers and service providers registered softer contractions in output during June, with some companies reporting slight rebounds in orders and client activity levels. … inflationary pressures and logistical disruptions arising from the war in the Middle East continued to weigh on performance”
• “New order inflows contracted once again”… “respondents linked the drop in sales volumes to overstocked clients, subdued market conditions and customers showing hesitancy to commit to new projects.”
• “Private sector payroll numbers were broadly stable in June, according to the 'flash' survey results, marking a relative improvement following May's solid decline.”
• “he latest survey figures indicated a cooling of cost pressures”….” That said, the rate of inflation remained considerably higher than that seen prior to the outbreak of war”.
• “Prices charged for French goods and services continued to rise, but to a softer extent than in May.”

• RES 4: 1.4328 1.764 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4292 61.8% Retracement Feb’25 - Jan’26 downleg
• RES 2: 1.4211 1.50 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing   
• RES 1: 1.4193 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 1.4174 @ 08:17 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 1.4095 Low Jun 18  
• SUP 2: 1.3973 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3863 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3837 Low Jun 3 

A strong impulsive bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. Last week’s rally signals scope for an extension towards 1.4211, a Fibonacci projection point. Further out, sights are on 1.4292, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that the trend is in overbought territory. A pullback would allow this condition to unwind. The first important support to watch lies at 1.3973, the 20-day EMA.

• MNI: FRANCE JUN FLASH MANUF PMI 50.7 (50.1 EXP, 49.7 MAY)
• FRANCE JUN FLASH SERVICES PMI 47.4 (46.0 EXP, 44.3 MAY)
• FRANCE JUN FLASH COMPOSITE PMI 47.6 (46.0 EXP, 44.9 MAY)