RENEWABLES: UK Morning Wind Forecast

EUREX ROLL pace (as of Yesterday):

• Buxl: 40%.
• Bund: 41%.
• Bobl: 58%.
• Schatz: 57%.
• BTP: 38%.
• BTS: 39%.
• OAT: 47%.

• RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6625 High Jul 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6569 High Aug 14 
• PRICE: 0.6513 @ 08:05 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

Despite trading lower Tuesday, AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest recovery continues to signal the end of a corrective phase that started on Jul 24. Sights are on 0.6569, Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.6625, the Jul 24 high. Support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break of it would instead resume the bear leg and highlight a stronger reversal.

• RES 4: 92.06 High Aug 14 
• RES 3: 91.45 High Aug 15      
• RES 2: 91.24 High Aug 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 90.16/90.84 High Sep 2 / High Aug 28 / 29 
• PRICE: 89.76 @ Close Sep 2
• SUP 1: 89.60 Low Sep 2
• SUP 2: 89.46 1.382 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support     

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and a fresh cycle low again on Tuesday reinforces current conditions. The continuation of the bear leg has resulted in a break of the 90.00 handle. Clearance of this level strengthens the downtrend and maintains the sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 89.46 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high.