UK DATA: UK June Inflation data is due at 0700BST.

• Italy will then look to hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction on Wednesday with E2.0-2.5bln of the on-the-run 2.20% Feb-28 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005692410) and E1.50-1.75bln of the 2.40% May-39 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005547812) on offer.
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to hold a LT Bund auction with E1bln of the 4.00% Jan-37 Bund (ISIN: DE0001135275) on offer alongside E1bln of the 3.40% May-47 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2T000).
• Italy will return to the market on Friday with a 5/10-year BTP / CCTeu auction. Details will be confirmed tomorrow. We expect the 5-year 3.15% Jun-31 BTP (ISIN: IT0005707614), the 10-year 3.80% Jul-36 BTP (ISIN: IT0005706285) and the Apr-36 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005707689) to all be on offer, possibly alongside another CCTeu issue. There is an outside chance that a new 10-year BTP is launched at this auction, but we think that is much more likely at the July auction.

NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week will see a single redemption: E14.3bln from a formerly 10-year Belgian OLO. Coupon payments for the week total E8.0bln of which E5.9bln are Italian, E1.7bln French and E0.3bln Austrian. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E6.1bln, similar to last week’s positive E5.8bln ex-retail.

See the full document here for the full MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix with a look ahead to the next two weeks of issuance, a recap of last week's issuance and a look ahead of Q3 / H2 issuance plans.

The EU, the Netherlands, Germany and Italy will all look to hold auctions in the upcoming week. We look for gross issuance of E28.5bln for the week, down from E29.4bln ex-retail last week.

• The EU will kick off auction issuance for the week this morning with its final auction of H1, with up to E2.5bln of the 3.125% Dec-28 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4EN5), up to E3bln of the 3.25% Dec-36 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A4ERVC2) and up to E1.5bln of the 1.25% Feb-43 Green EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DG1) on offer.
  • The H2 EU is expected to follow later this week (potentially as soon as this afternoon).
• The Netherlands will come to the market tomorrow with E1.0-2.0bln of the on-the-run 30-year 3.50% Jan-56 DSL (ISIN: NL0015002P70) on offer.
• Germany will look to hold its first auction of the week tomorrow with E5bln of the 2.50% Jun-28 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22130) on offer.

• RES 4: 0.8747 76.4% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8742 High Mar 31 and Apr 1 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8731 High May 18 
• RES 1: 0.8694 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8670 @ 06:41 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 0.8650/18 20-day EMA / Low May 25
• SUP 2: 0.8610 Low Mar 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 ‘25
• SUP 4: 0.8576 Low Jul 2 ‘25  

EURGBP support has remained intact and the latest recovery highlights a short-term bull cycle. A resumption of gains would suggest potential for a climb towards the next important resistance at 0.8731, the May 18 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight dominant downtrend, suggesting gains are corrective. The key support and bear trigger lies at 0.8610, the Mar 16 low.