GILT TECHS: (U6) Bearish Trend Sequence

• RES 4: 6484.00 2000 proj of the May 4 - 6 - 18 price swing   
• RES 3: 6426.00 Top of a bull channel drawn from the May 18 low 
• RES 2: 6400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 6380.00 High Jun 18
• PRICE: 6298.00 @ 06:44 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 6184.35 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 6047.65 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5986.00 Low Jun 11 
• SUP 4: 5844.00 Low May 20

Trend signals in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bullish, highlighted by moving average studies that are in a bull-mode position. Also, the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Key short-term resistance at 6174.00, the May 25 high, has been breached. This confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and sights are on the 6400.00 handle next. Firm support lies at 6047.65, the 50-day EMA.

The Netherlands and Germany will look to hold auctions today, while the EU will hold the non-competitive round of yesterday’s auction. Italy will come to the market follow tomorrow with Germany returning. Italy will also return to the market later this week. We look for gross issuance of E28.6bln for the week, down from E29.4bln ex-retail last week.

For the full document with a recap of issuance so far this week, a look ahead to issuance through the remainder of this week and next week and a first round up of expectations for Q3 / H2 issuance plans click here.

• The Netherlands will come to the market today with E1.0-2.0bln of the on-the-run 30-year 3.50% Jan-56 DSL (ISIN: NL0015002P70).
• Germany will look to hold its first auction of the week today with E5bln of the 2.50% Jun-28 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22130) on offer.

• RES 4: 0.8747 76.4% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8742 High Mar 31 and Apr 1 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8731 High May 18 
• RES 1: 0.8657/94 50-day EMA / High Jun 22
• PRICE: 0.8629 @ 06:50 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 0.8618 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 0.8610 Low Mar 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 ‘25
• SUP 4: 0.8576 Low Jul 2 ‘25  

A sharp sell-off Monday in EURGBP highlights a bearish threat and recent gains appear to have been corrective. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this also continues to highlight dominant downtrend, suggesting gains are corrective. The key support and bear trigger lies at 0.8610, the Mar 16 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at today’s 0.8694 high.