US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U6) Bearish Theme

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
• 06/25 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (226k, 225k), Continuing Claims (1.810M, 1.802M)
• 06/25 0830 Personal Income (0.0%, 0.4%), Personal Spending (0.5%, 0.6%)
• 06/25 0830 Real Personal Spending (0.1%, 0.2%)
• 06/25 0830 Personal Consumption (1.4%, 1.4%)
• 06/25 0830 PCE Price Index MoM (0.4%, 0.5%), YoY (3.8%, 4.1%)
• 06/25 0830 Core PCE Price Index MoM (0.2%, 0.3%), YoY (3.3%, 3.4%)
• 06/25 0830 Durable Goods Orders (8.0%, -5.0%), ex-trans (1.1%, 0.6%)
• 06/25 0830 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (-1.0%, 0.6%), ship (0.4%, 0.5%)
• 06/25 0830 GDP Price Index (3.5%, 3.5%), Annualized QoQ (1.6%, 1.6%)
• 06/25 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (0.14, 0.12)
• 06/25 0845 Fed VC Bowman small banbk conf moderated discussion
• 06/25 11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Activity (8, 6)
• 06/25 1130 US Tsy $70B 4W & $75B 8W bill auctions
• 06/25 1300 US Tsy $44B 7Y Note auction (91282CQW4)
• 09/25 1540 NY Fed Williams keynote remarks (no Q&A)
• 09/25 1830 Chicago Fed Goolsbee moderated discussion
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office in roughly an hour. The meeting could be Trump’s most consequential engagement of the week, with the NATO chief expected to lean on his amiable relationship with Trump to ease concerns over European defence spending, ahead of the NATO summit in Turkey on July 7-8.

• While Trump has committed to attending the summit, the lead-up has been coloured by comments from Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio questioning the value of the alliance for the US; threatening to upend decades of policy regarding US troop deployments in Europe; and undermining confidence in Washington’s commitment to the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defence clause.
• The lead-up has also included several high-profile spats with European leaders, most recently with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, suggesting that the leaders’ confab could be less amicable than last year’s summit in The Hague. However, it should be noted that Trump tends to keep his in-person meetings more cordial than his online pronouncements.
• Trump is also expected to meet today with top executives from the largest US defence contractors to ratchet up pressure to increase production of critical munitions. Semafor notes, “The meeting follows one in March with defense contractors and is expected to include similar participants. The Iran war has eroded stockpiles of expensive weapons that take months to build.”  

• RES 4: 163.59 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 9 - Feb 12 price swing
• RES 3: 163.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 162.28 1.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 9 - Feb 12 price swing
• RES 1: 161.95 High Jul 3 ’24 and a major resistance
• PRICE: 161.73 @ 17:30 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 160.99 Low Jun 19 
• SUP 2: 160.39 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 159.51 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 158.74 Low May 25 

Bullish conditions in USDJPY remain intact and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The recent breach of resistance at 160.72, the Apr 30 high, confirmed a resumption of the M/T uptrend. Sights are on 161.95 next, the Jul 3 ‘24 major high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support is seen around the 50-day EMA, currently at 159.51.