US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U6) Bear Cycle Still In Play Despite A Bounce

• Equities are mixed late Tuesday, off midday lows after some sharp geo-political related headline volatility. Though well ahead of month end positioning - June quarterly index rebalancing was also cited as a potential factor behind equity indexes retreating to early May levels before rebounding in late trade: the DJIA +.11%, SPX emini -0.45%, Nasdaq -1.1%.
• Risk sentiment for stocks evaporated after earlier IDF headlines (re: prepared to return, strike Iran again) and again after Trump posted the need to respond militarily to the downing of a US attack helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz.
• Striking a more realistic tone, Anadolu wrote: "Reaching agreement to end war between US and Iran within next few days is 'unlikely' due to ongoing 'complex situation,' Pakistani government sources told Anadolu. Sources cite Israel’s 'non-stop' ceasefire violations in southern Lebanon".
• IT and Energy sector shares continued to lead late session declines, AI-infrastructure demand cooling as Coherent Corp trades -11.2%, followed by Lumentum Holdings, QUALCOMM, Super Micro Computer, Corning and ServiceNow - all down 7.5-9.0%.
• The Energy sector is weighed down by oil and gas shares as crude prices retreat (WTI -3.25 at $88.05/bbl): APA Corp, Valero Energy, Halliburton Co, SLB Ltd and Devon Energy Corp trade -2.5-4.0%.
• On the positive side, estate management shares buoyed the Real Estate sector: with CBRE Group +3.9%, CoStar Group +1.7% at the moment.

• RES 4: 161.46 1.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 3: 161.00 round number resistance 
• RES 2: 160.72 High Apr 30 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 160.39 High Jun 08
• PRICE: 160.26 @ 16:51 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 159.35 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 158.78/157.32 50-day EMA / Low May 14 
• SUP 3: 156.78 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 156.35 Uptrendline drawn off Apr’ 25 low

A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in play for now. The pair is approaching key resistance at 160.72, the Apr 30 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the uptrend. Note that a breach would also cancel a bear threat highlighted by the large bear candle on Apr 30. While price trades between the Apr 30 open and close (the candle body), it is possible that the recovery since May 6 is corrective. Initial firm support is 158.78, the 50-day EMA.  

• Crude oil has fallen sharply on Tuesday as hopes around a US-Iran deal have risen again amid reports that the US has been sent a new draft agreement and that Hezbollah could agree to a comprehensive ceasefire.
• WTI Jul 26 is down by 3.1% at $88.4/bbl.
• Sky News Arabia reported that the draft agreement has been sent to the American side for its review, with confirmation that the draft is preliminarily acceptable to the American administration.
• However, crude bounced off session lows after President Trump posted on Truth Social to say he would respond to the Iranian downing of a US helicopter, threatening to raise tensions.
• While it may contradict Trump’s statements earlier of progress to a deal, the US may think it can take some form of limited action without completely derailing the talks.
• From a technical perspective, the trend condition in WTI futures remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective.
• The contract has traded through a key area of support at $90.51, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this would highlight a top and the start of a stronger correction, opening $77.22, the Apr 17 low.
• Meanwhile, precious metals have also pulled back today, with spot gold down by 1.4% at $4,269/oz and silver declining by 4.0% to $65.5/oz.
• A bear theme in gold remains intact, with scope seen for an extension towards the next key support at $4,099.2, the Mar 23 low.