BRENT TECHS: (U5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $69.78 @ 07:04 BST Jul 25
- SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30
- SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
The trend set-up in Brent futures is unchanged. A bearish theme remains present and the July recovery appears corrective. The sell-off on Jun 23 continues to highlight a bearish threat. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A resumption of the bear leg would expose $61.39, May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci point.
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BTP TECHS: (U5) Trend Needle Continues To Point North
- RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.13 @ Close Jun 24
- SUP 1: 119.91 Low May 29
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Gains earlier this month reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 119.91, the May 29 low.
EGB FUNDING UPDATE: Italy Q3 funding plan with MNI expectations
Italy released its Q3 issuance programme on Tuesday. The MEF notes that E172bln was issued between January and May with a further E51bln expected in June. This leaves E115-125bln of gross issuance expected for H2. E225-245bln of gross issuance expected for Q2-Q4. This equates to gross issuance of E338-348bln for 2025, broadly in line with the E332-352bln of gross issuance from a similar calculation a quarter ago and with the initial 2025 target of E330-350bln.
New issues expected in Q3 (up to 10-year):
- 3-year BTP maturing 15 January 2029 (minimum outstanding E9bln, MNI expect a July launch).
- 7-year BTP maturing 15 November 2032 (minimum outstanding E10bln, MNI expect a September launch).
- 10-year BTP maturing 1 February 2036 (minimum outstanding E10bln, MNI expect a September launch).
Issues expected to be reopened in Q3 (up to 10-year):
- 2.55% Feb-27 BTP Short Term (minimum E9bln outstanding already exceeded).
- 5-year 2.95% Jul-30 BTP (minimum E10bln outstanding already exceeded).
- 7-year BTP maturing 15 July 2032 (minimum outstanding E10bln, already exceeded)
- 10-year BTP maturing 1 October 2035 (minimum outstanding E10bln)
EURGBP TECHS: Trading Just Below Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 0.8648 76.4% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
- RES 3: 0.8624 High Apr 21
- RES 2: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
- RES 1: 0.8575 High Jun 23
- PRICE: 0.8529 @ 06:59 BST Jun 25
- SUP 1: 0.8498/8471 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
EURGBP continues to trade just below its recent highs and a bullish theme remains intact. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are currently in a bull-mode position - this reinforces the current bull theme. Scope is seen for a test of 0.8592 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.8471, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.
