BOBL TECHS: (U5) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3632 High Jun 13
• PRICE: 1.3574 @ 06:16 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 1.3456 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 1.3346 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3207 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low 
• SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support

GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. A rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, together with a bull set-up in moving average studies, highlights a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3681 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance at 1.3616, the Jun 5 high has been pierced - a bullish development. Support to watch lies at 1.3456, the Jun 10 low.

ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -2.5) are weaker and trading near Sydney session lows on a local data-light day.

• Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today's Asia-Pac session after paring earlier strength. Today’s US calendar will see Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Business Inventories and the NAHB Housing Market Index.
• US President Trump has posted on Truth Social, stating that Iran should have signed the deal he told them to sign, while also reiterating that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. He also noted that everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately.
• Cash ACGBs are 3bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -18bps.
• The bills strip is cheaper, with pricing -1 to -3.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in July is given an 85% probability, with a cumulative 76bps of easing priced by year-end.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the Westpac Leading Index. May's jobs data is on Thursday. Bloomberg consensus sees a 20k rise in new jobs, in line with the 3-month average, with the unemployment and participation rates stable at 4.1% and 67.1% respectively.
• The AOFM plans to sell A$900mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond tomorrow and A$800mn of the 1.00% 21 December 2030 bond on Friday.

           RES 4: 118.649 1.382 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 price swing

• RES 3: 118.531 1.236 proj of the May 21 - Jun 3 - Jun 5 price swing
• RES 2: 118.390 High Jun 13 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 117.965 50.0% retracement of the Jun 13 - 16 downleg   
• PRICE: 117.780 @ 05:54 BST Jun 17  
• SUP 1: 117.530 Low Jun 5 and a key near-term support 
• SUP 2: 117.470 Low May 21 
• SUP 3: 117.470 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 116.660 Low Mar 27       

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle, however, the contract has extended the reversal from Friday’s session high. This has exposed key short-term support at 117.530, the Jun 5 low. A break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and cancel the recent bull theme. This would open 117.470, the May 21 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.390, the Jun 13 high. A breach of this level would be bullish.