US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

Jul-09 10:24

* RES 4: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg * RES 3: 112-23 High May 1 and key resi...

Historical bullets

LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Wholesale Trade Sales & Inventories

Jun-09 10:23
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • 09-Jun 1000 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM (0.6%, 0.2%)
  • 09-Jun 1000 Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.0%, 0.0%)
  • 09-Jun 1100 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (3.63%, --)
  • 09-Jun 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W & $68B 26W bill auctions

STIR: Holding Bulk Of Friday’s Hawkish Shift On Payrolls

Jun-09 10:19
  • Fed Funds implied rates for 2025 meetings have pulled a touch back from Friday’s shift back towards their most hawkish since February but still hold the bulk of the increase seen on a solid payrolls report.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0bp Jun, 4.5bp Jul, 18.5bp Sep, 30.5bp Oct and 46.5bp Dec.
  • As you can see from the table below, the path is back close to levels seen shortly before higher jobless claims a week and a half ago started a run of dovish data that was reversed with the payrolls report.
  • There are slightly larger shifts further out the curve but the broad takeaway remains -- the SOFR implied terminal yield of 3.39% (SFRZ6) is 4.5bp lower on the day but still 7bp higher since NFPs after Friday saw its highest close since May 14.
  • It’s a quiet data docket both today and tomorrow, with data focus firmly on Wednesday’s CPI report for May.
  • The FOMC is now in media blackout ahead of the Jun 17-18 meeting.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Bearish Threat

Jun-09 10:17
  • RES 4: 111-30   76.4% retracement of the May 1 - 22 downleg
  • RES 3: 111-19+ 1.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 111-14+ High Jun 5 & 61.8% of the May 1 - 22 downleg
  • RES 1: 110-20+ 50-day EMA   
  • PRICE:‌‌ 110-03+ @ 11:04 BST Jun 9
  • SUP 1: 109-26   Low May 29          
  • SUP 2: 109-12+ Low May 22 and the bear trigger 
  • SUP 3: 109-09+ Low Apr 11 and key support
  • SUP 4: 108-25+ 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 11 - May 1 price swing

The reversal in Treasury futures from last Thursday’s high, undermines a recent bullish theme. An extension would expose support at 109-26, the May 29 low, where a break would open key support and the bear trigger, at 109-12+, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.