US TSYS: Twist Flattening On The Day, Bull Steeper For The Week
Jul-17 20:05
The Treasury curve twist flattened Friday, but yields still manage to close lower for the week overa...
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US STOCKS: S&P 500 E-mini Through Support, Opening Key Level If Sustained
Jun-17 20:04
- ESM6 has recently seen a small bounce to ~7430 (-1.2%) off earlier low of 7405.00, although earlier cleared support at 7429.00 (Jun 12 low) against the backdrop of sharply higher Treasury yields.
- If sustained it opens a key support at 7232.25 (Jun 11 low).
- Losses are seen across all major sectors within the SPX, led by communication services (-3.0%), consumer discretionary (-2.7%) and real estate (-2.5%).
- Industrials (-0.1%) are relative outperformers followed by financials (-0.5%).
- Some megacaps see heavy losses, led by Meta (-5.1%), Microsoft (-3.9%) and Amazon (-3.5%). Apple (-1.4%) and Nvidia (-1.5%) have been less prone.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
Jun-17 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4095 1.236 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4092 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4051 High Nov 28 2025
- RES 1: 1.4037 High Jun 17
- PRICE: 1.4035 @ 17:31 BST Jun 17
- SUP 1: 1.3951 Low Jun 15
- SUP 2: 1.3891 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3815 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.3731 Low May 20
USDCAD is holding on to its latest gains. The current bull cycle remains intact and a fresh cycle high on Jun 11 highlights a resumption of the upleg. Note that the move higher confirmed a clear break of resistance at 1.3967, the Mar 31 high. This strengthens a bullish theme and paves the way for an extension towards 1.4051, the Nov 28 2025 high. Key support lies at 1.3815, the 50-day EMA. The first important support is at 1.3891, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: 2Y Yields Clear 4.20% For First Time Since Feb2025 On Hawkish Fed Comms
Jun-17 19:45
- 2Y Tsy yields meanwhile continued to climb strongly through and since Warsh’s press conference and are now 15bp higher on the day.
- They have cleared the 4.20% handle for the first time since Feb 2025.
- Aggressive flattening extends, with 2s10s to 28.6bp (-10.4bp on the day) for fresh flats since Apr 2025 having already been at that relative level pre-SEP at ~36.5bp.
- TYU6 has been dragged another 10 ticks lower since before the press conference, recently hitting latest lows of 109-09+ well beyond the Q&A being wrapped up.
- It had reversed Monday’s gap higher after the weekend US-Iran agreement headlines on the initial SEP release and has now mostly reversed the previous climb seen on Thursday when Trump touted the peace deal.
- However, it is still comfortably above support at 108-25 (Jun 8 low) before the bear trigger at 108-08+ (May 19 low).
