LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Imports/Exports, Factory Orders, JOLTS Jobs
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 08/04 0830 Trade Balance (-$77.6B, -$73.0B)
- 08/04 0830 Imports MoM (3.3%, -1.9%), Exports MoM (-3.2%, -1.1%)
- 08/04 1000 Factory Orders (-1.3%, 0.2%)
- 08/04 1000 JOLTS Job Openings (7.594M, 7.454M), Rate (4.6%, 4.4%)
- 08/04 1000 JOLTS Quits Level (3.065M, 3.083M), Rate (1.9%, 1.9%)
- 08/04 1000 JOLTS Layoffs Level (1.708M, 1.681M), Rate (1.1%, --)
- 08/04 1000 Durable Goods Orders (0.3%, 0.3%), Ex-Trans (0.6%, 0.6%)
- 08/04 1000 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (0.9%, 0.9%), Ship (1.9%, 1.9)
- 08/04 1130 US Tsy $95B 6W & $52B 52W bill auctions
- 08/04 2015 KC Fed Schmid on policy (text, Q&A)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
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JGB TECHS: (U6) Downside Momentum Intact
- RES 3: 133.15 - High Feb 24 ‘26
- RES 2: 131.06 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb - May Bear Leg
- RES 1: 129.01 - 50-dma (cont)
- PRICE: 127.10 @ 14:51 BST Jul 03
- SUP 1: 126.85 - Low Jul 02
- SUP 2: 126.19 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 125.70 - Low Feb 1999
Bearish pressure has eased, but the broader theme remains negative in JGB futures. Through the latest sell-off, the price printed through the lower 1.0% 10-dma envelope on the continuation contract, signalling the strength of downside pressure. This widens the gap with the 50-dma, a break above which is needed to highlight a stronger short-term reversal and signal scope for any recovery. The 50-dma is currently at 129.01. A strong bull rally would open 131.80, a Fibonacci retracement.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.4328 1.764 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4292 61.8% Retracement Feb’25 - Jan’26 downleg
- RES 2: 1.4264 1.618 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4248 High Jun 24 and 25 and Tuesday’s high
- PRICE: 1.4198 @ 16:08 BST Jul 3
- SUP 1: 1.4150 Low Jul 2
- SUP 2: 1.4100 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3956 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.3837 Low Jun 3
USDCAD remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. A recent fresh cycle high reinforced the bull theme and the move higher has paved the way for a climb towards 1.4292, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Feb ’25 - Jan ’26 downleg. Note that the trend remains in overbought territory. A stronger corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. On the downside, the first important support lies at 1.4100, the 20-day EMA.
