US TSYS: Tsys Off Cycle Lows Ahead Sep NFP, Crude Up With Middle East Tensions

• RES 4: 0.7310 1.00 proj of the Mar 30 - May 6 - Jun 30 price swing
• RES 3: 0.7278 High May 6 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.7223 High May 15
• RES 1: 0.7208 High Aug 28
• PRICE: 0.7160 @ 16:53 BST Sep 01
• SUP 1: 0.7113 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.7067/0.6922 50-day EMA / Low Jul 29  
• SUP 3: 0.6907 Low Jul 8 
• SUP 4: 0.6865 Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger 

A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and a fresh cycle high last week reinforces current trend conditions. The pair has breached 0.7181, the 76.4% retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg. The move higher strengthens the bull theme and maintains the rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.7223 next, the May 15 high. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA at 0.7067.          

SOFR & Treasury options trade outlined below: decent volumes on mixed positioning (puts trade increased in second half) ahead of Friday's headline jobs report. Underlying futures mildly weaker, just off recent lows. Projected rate hike pricing gaining slightly vs. late Monday levels (*): Sep'26 at +17bp (+16.3bp), Oct'26 at +24.3bp (+23.1bp), Dec'26 39.5bp (+37.3bp), Jan'27 45.8bp (42.1bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +10,000 SFRZ6 95.75/96.00 put spds, 12.0 ref 95.905
  • +30,000 OQH7 96.00/96.37/96.75 put flys vs SFRH7 95.62 put, 3.5 net package
  • +2,500 SFRH7 95.37/95.62 put spds 0.5 over 96.00/96.25 call spds
  • +5,000 SFRU6 96.25/96.31 call spds, cab vs. 96.10/0.05%
  • +20,000 OQH7 95.00/95.37/95.75 put flys, 6.75 ref 95.78
  • -10,000 OQH7 96.00/96.25 call spds, 6.75 ref 95.775
  • +2,000 OQM6 96.75 straddles 57.5 ref 95.785
  • -5,000 SFRZ6 96.12 straddles, 7.5 ref 96.125
  • -5,000 SFRU6 96.12/96.18/96.25/96.31 call condors, 1.75 ref 96.125
  • -5,000 SFRZ6 96.18 calls, 4.75 ref 95.925
  • +5,000 SFRZ7 98.00 calls, 3.75
  • Block/Screen, over -21,000 SFRH7 96.00/96.25/96.43 broken call flys, 4.0 net
  • +2,000 SFRU6 96.12/96.18 put spds, 4.25
  • over 9,300 SFRZ6 95.75/96.00 put spds, 11.5 ref 95.92
  • 2,500 SFRZ6 95.75/96.00 put spds ref 95.915
  • 5,000 SFRU6 96.25 calls, ref 96.12
  • -3,500 0QH7 96.00/96.25 call spds, 7.0 ref 95.78
  • +4,000 SFRM6 96.25 calls, 11.5-12.5 ref 95.715
• Treasury Options:
  • 5,000 USV6 113.5 calls, 3
  • 8,000 FVV6 105.5 puts, 19.5
  • -1,000 FVV6 103.75/107.5 strangles, 2.5 vs.105-21/0.08%
  • 3,000 TYV6 108.5 calls, 12 ref 107-17.5
  • 3,400 TYV6 109.75 calls ref 107-17.5
  • +20,000 FVV6 105.75 calls, 19.5 ref 105-19
  • -20,000 TYV6 107.25/107.75 put spds, 15 ref 107-16.5
  • over 17,000 wk1 107.25 puts 7 last (exp 9/4)
  • over 18,600 wk1 TY 107.5 puts, 15 last (exp 9/4)
  • over 22,000 wk1 TY 107.75 puts, 23 last (exp 9/4)
  • +2,000 FVV6 105.25/105.5 put spds, 2 ref 105-20.25
  • 2,000 FVV6 105.25 puts, 13.5 ref 105-20.25
  • 4,000 wk1 TY 107.75/108 put spds ref 107-19 (exp 9/4)
  • +2,000 FVV6 105.25/105.5 put spds, 6

• -4,000 UXYZ6 109-02.5, sell through 109-03 post time bid at 1500:53ET, DV01 $340,000.
• The 10Y Ultra contract trades 109-03 last