ENERGY: Trump, Zelenskiy to Meet in Washington July 28

Downside in spot gold picking up pace after the breach of the psychological $4,000/oz figure, currently -3.4% on the session at $3,980. A bearish technical theme remains intact, though we note that the 14-day RSI is now entering oversold territory. The next main supports to monitor are $3945.2 (1.236 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2  - Mar 3 price swing) and $3,886.6 (Low Oct 28 2025).

• The latest pullback comes despite a decline in global yields, with bearish technical conditions and the broader dollar bid dominating.
• Note that inflows into Western ETFs have been relatively sluggish through this year, and momentum has turned negative once again in recent weeks (see charts). The stalling of the bullish trend seen into end-2025, alongside the prospects of higher interest rates and inflation, have reduced the appeal of gold to retail investors.  

Figure 1: Spot Gold Since 2025

Figure 2: Gold Western ETF Flows

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and GOP leadership will meet with Republican members of the House Budget Committee this morning to discuss the next steps for a possible third reconciliation bill. With Democrats expected to take control of at least one chamber of Congress in January, a reconciliation 3.0 package is likely to be the last opportunity for the GOP to enact its legislative priorities during Trump's second term. 

• Senate Republicans are sceptical the party can rush through another party-line bill, but there may be a pathway for a narrowly focused package, as the second reconciliation bill was with immigration enforcement.
• Punchbowl reports, “The vision for reconciliation 3.0 is this: pairing hundreds of billions of dollars in new Pentagon funding with budget cuts to root out what Republicans call waste, fraud and abuse. GOP leaders would throw in some policies that address affordability concerns too, likely tax cuts.”
• Politico notes Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) said that GOP leaders were still trying to build “consensus” and had not committed to any specific timeline for the spending framework — despite pressure from some Republicans to move it before lawmakers depart for the July 4 recess.
• Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-TX) "insisted Republicans could pull together a bare bones budget resolution in the next two weeks, adding that today’s meeting will help determine how to pay for some of an Iran war funding portion by targeting alleged fraud in other government spending programs in a way that's digestible by the GOP conference," adds Politico. 

• The German Bund is now testing the resistance of 127.22 High Mar 10.
• As highlighted earlier, in Yield terms the 2.85% equates to 127.45, although the stronger area of support will be seen at 2.80%.
• This level would equate to 127.97, which is much  futher out
• For the US 10yr Yield, 4.40% comes at 109.30+ in USU6.