TARIFFS: Trump: US To Impose 50% Tariff Rate On Brazil, Sect 301 Investigation

Jul-09 20:37

US President Trump has announced the imposition of a 50% tariff rate on Brazilian imports effective August 1, per his post on Truth Social (link), triggering a 1.7% rise in USDBRL to the highest level in a month (5.6052). Brazil was initially assigned the baseline 10% reciprocal tariff, so 50% is a major escalation to one of the highest tariff rates imposed on any US trading partner. The letter also notes that the US will "immediately initiate" a Section 301 investigation (of unfair trade practices) of Brazil due to its alleged "continued attacks on the Digital Trade activities of American Companies". 

  • The "letter" sent by President Trump to President Lula (posted on Truth Social) is not the usual boilerplate either, citing various political and trade grievances for the unusually high rate. Key portions of the letter below that differ from the largely identical letters sent to other countries:
  • "The way that Brazil has treated former President Bolsonaro, a Highly Respected Leader throughout the World during his Term, including by the United States, is an international disgrace. This Trial should not be taking place. It is a Witch Hunt that should end IMMEDIATELY! Due in part to Brazil's insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans (as lately illustrated by the Brazilian Supreme Court, which has issued hundreds of SECRET and UNLAWFUL Censorship Orders to U.S. Social Media platforms, threatening them with Millions of Dollars in Fines and Eviction from the Brazilian Social Media market), starting on August 1. 2025, we will charge Brazil a Tariff of 50% on any and all Brazilian products sent into the United States, separate from all Sectoral Tariffs. Goods transshipped to evade this 50% Tariff will be subject to that higher Tariff."
  • "In addition, we have had years to discuss our Trading Relationship with Brazil, and have concluded that we must move away from the longstanding, and very unfair trade relationship engendered by Brazil's Tariff, and Non-Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers. Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from Reciprocal. Please understand that the 50% number is far less than what is needed to have the Level Playing Field we must have with your Country. And it is necessary to have this to rectify the grave injustices of the current regime. As you are aware, there will be no Tariff if Brazil, or companies within your Country, decide to build or manufacture product within the United States and, in fact, we will do everything possible to get approvals quickly, professionally, and routinely in other words, in a matter of weeks."
  • "Additionally, because of Brazil's continued attacks on the Digital Trade activities of American Companies, as well as other unfair Trading Practices, I am directing United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to immediately initiate a Section 301 Investigation of Brazil."

Historical bullets

FED: Natixis: Next Cut Pushed Back A Meeting To October

Jun-09 20:37

Natixis becomes the latest sell-side institution to push back expectations of the next Fed cut, following Friday's Employment Report. They now see easing resuming in October, vs September previously. Overall they see consecutive cuts from that point to June 2026 to 2.75-3.00% (150bp of cuts).

  • "The resilience in the labor market is the primary reason for pushing out the next cut. The most recent employment report showed a labor market that is continuing to cool a bit, but with few signs of imminent cracks. This will help to confirm that the risk of continuing to wait before resuming the cutting cycle is low and pausing to observe the impact and degree of passthrough from tariffs is the appropriate path."
  • Overall it appears that there will be few if any analysts who expect a cut before September, going into the June FOMC meeting next week - we will update next Monday with our overview of analyst expectations.

US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Jefferies Above Consensus On Core CPI And See Upside Risk

Jun-09 20:17
  • Jefferies expect core CPI at 0.34% M/M in May for 3.0% Y/Y.
  • "Core goods are expected to come in hot, up 0.6% m/m with new and used cars, up 0.6% and 2.2%, serving as the main contributors. In addition, furnishing and apparel should be firm, each up 0.25%, along with auto parts up 0.5%.”
  • What's more, “[t]here is upside risk going into the print given the possibility of tariffs coming through on a broader basis.”
  • “The elevated core goods figure will be offset by weak energy goods (-2.6%) due to falling gas prices. For services, car maintenance is expected to come in at 0.6% while OER will remain firm at 0.36%.
  • They see headline CPI at 0.212% M/M for 2.5% Y/Y. 

US TSYS: Late Risk-Off Tone as Marine Battalion Deployed to LA

Jun-09 20:04
  • Muted reaction after the bell, stocks pared gains after wires reported a battalion of Marines (appr 500) to be deployed to Los Angeles to quell immigration protest unrest.
  • Treasuries blipped higher after NY Fed 1Y inflation expectations come out lower than expected. Tsys remain inside session range, curves steeper with Bonds lagging.
  • 1-Year median inflation expectations fell to 3.2% from 3.6% prior, the biggest drop since February 2023 to the lowest level since February of this year. 3Y median ticked 0.2pp lower to 3.00% (fully reversing what now appears to be a temporary tariff-led increase in April).
  • Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures currently trades 6 at 110-03  vs. 110-07.5 session high, technical resistance above at 110-20.5 (50-day EMA).
  • Curves steeper: 2s10s +0.903 at 47.391, 5s30s +1.498 at 86.007
  • Cross asset: Stocks mildly higher, paring gains (SPX eminis +2.25 at 6009.0), Gold higher at 3327.5.
  • Bbg US$ index little weaker, inside range at 1209.21 (-2.53).