US: Trump To Speak At White House Event Shortly

• 6,000 wk2 TY 110/110.5/110.75 broken call flys, 1 net/wings over ref 110-27.5, expire this Friday

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 04/06 $4.6B #QTS 10Y +137.5
• 04/06 $1B #Marvell Technology 10Y +97

The Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS)'s preliminary estimate for ex-auto retail sales growth is 0.9% M/M, vs the 0.5% posted in February in last week's Census Bureau. 

• It would mark the biggest gain in this key core category (which is close to the overall Control Group, which also excludes food services, gasoline and building materials) since September 2024 on an unrounded basis, and would bring up the quarterly run rate (3M/3M annualized) to 3.2% from 2.0% for the highest since November.
• However, there is a major caveat here and that is, this is expressed in nominal terms. The % volume change is estimated to be -1.1%, with prices of ex-auto retail sales  items up 2.0% M/M.
• While there's no breakdown of the details, this appears to be largely related to gasoline prices, which look to have jumped sharply in March (around 25% M/M) and aren't in the Control Group (motor fuel is about 3% of the CPI basket but about 9% of ex-autos retail sales).
• With a strong rise in light vehicle sales in March indicated by Wards Automotive (16.34 million in March from 15.75 million in February), March's headline figure (released April 21) looks to have an outsized figure on the overall nominal side, but should be heavily caveated due to the gas price spike with Control Group taking on even more importance than usual in the interpretation.