STIR: Trump-Powell Headline Impact Reversed For 2025 Rates, More Caution Beyond
* Fed Funds implied rates have pushed a little higher overnight, with 2025 meetings having reverse...
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Bulls Remain In The Driver's Seat
- On the commodity front, a bullish theme in Gold remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3267.0, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at 3340.2.
- In the oil space, WTI futures traded sharply higher last week and Friday’s early rally marked an acceleration of the current bull phase. Price action is likely to remain volatile near-term, and from a technical standpoint, the trend is currently in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle. A firm support is noted $68.49, the Jun 13 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
STIR: Jump In SFRM6 OI Headlined On Monday
OI data points to a mix of net short setting and long cover as most SOFR futures ticked lower on Monday.
- It is hard to provide any real inference for SFRH5 and SFRZ6 through M7, as those contracts settled at unchanged levels.
- The most meaningful be OI change came in SFRM6, which could be linked to flattener flow in SFRH6/M6.
- Note that there wasn’t a corresponding increase in SFRH6 open interest.
- Long cover in SFRM5 was also notable.
| 16-Jun-25 | 13-Jun-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRH5 | 1,077,061 | 1,069,895 | +7,166 | Whites | -24,763 |
SFRM5 | 1,372,412 | 1,403,929 | -31,517 | Reds | +83,460 |
SFRU5 | 1,149,957 | 1,151,261 | -1,304 | Greens | +9,817 |
SFRZ5 | 1,175,780 | 1,174,888 | +892 | Blues | +8,570 |
SFRH6 | 938,132 | 925,952 | +12,180 |
|
|
SFRM6 | 909,729 | 848,359 | +61,370 |
|
|
SFRU6 | 786,963 | 782,915 | +4,048 |
|
|
SFRZ6 | 861,801 | 855,939 | +5,862 |
|
|
SFRH7 | 667,044 | 664,001 | +3,043 |
|
|
SFRM7 | 624,731 | 617,196 | +7,535 |
|
|
SFRU7 | 429,427 | 428,917 | +510 |
|
|
SFRZ7 | 402,716 | 403,987 | -1,271 |
|
|
SFRH8 | 300,525 | 300,774 | -249 |
|
|
SFRM8 | 203,582 | 196,476 | +7,106 |
|
|
SFRU8 | 179,203 | 177,372 | +1,831 |
|
|
SFRZ8 | 168,760 | 168,878 | -118 |
|
|
EU-BOND SYNDICATION: 3.375% Oct-39 EU-bond: E5bln WNG Tap: Priced
- Reoffer: 99.209 to yield 3.445%
- Spread set at MS+73bps (guidance was MS + 75bps area)
- HR: 88% vs 4.25% Jul-39 Bund (DE0001135325) Spot ref: 116.750 / 2.791% / +65.4bps
- Tap Size set earlier: E5bln (WNG) (the bottom of the E5-9bln range MNI expected)
- Final books in excess of E93bln (inc E5.9bln JLM interest)
- ISIN: EU000A3LZ0X9 (immediately fungible)
- JLMs: BofA (DM/B&D) / GSBE SE / NatWest / SG / UBS
- Timing: TOE 11:30BST / 12:30CET. FTT immediately
