IRAN: *TRUMP: IRAN SAID IT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT DENUCLEARIZATION, Bbg

US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver remarks at an event to mark America's 250th birthday at Mount Rushmore, South Dakota. LIVESTREAM

• RES 3: 133.15 - High Feb 24 ‘26
• RES 2: 131.06 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb - May Bear Leg
• RES 1: 129.01 - 50-dma (cont)
• PRICE: 127.10 @ 14:51 BST Jul 03
• SUP 1: 126.85 - Low Jul 02
• SUP 2: 126.19 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 125.70 - Low Feb 1999

Bearish pressure has eased, but the broader theme remains negative in JGB futures. Through the latest sell-off, the price printed through the lower 1.0% 10-dma envelope on the continuation contract, signalling the strength of downside pressure. This widens the gap with the 50-dma, a break above which is needed to highlight a stronger short-term reversal and signal scope for any recovery. The 50-dma is currently at 129.01. A strong bull rally would open 131.80, a Fibonacci retracement.  

• RES 4: 1.4328 1.764 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4292 61.8% Retracement Feb’25 - Jan’26 downleg
• RES 2: 1.4264 1.618 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing   
• RES 1: 1.4248 High Jun 24 and 25 and Tuesday’s high
• PRICE: 1.4198 @ 16:08 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 1.4150 Low Jul 2
• SUP 2: 1.4100 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3956 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3837 Low Jun 3 

USDCAD remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. A recent fresh cycle high reinforced the bull theme and the move higher has paved the way for a climb towards 1.4292, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Feb ’25 - Jan ’26 downleg. Note that the trend remains in overbought territory. A stronger corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. On the downside, the first important support lies at 1.4100, the 20-day EMA.