IRAN: Trump Considers Iran Escalation per 4 NYT Sources

US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office in roughly an hour. The meeting could be Trump’s most consequential engagement of the week, with the NATO chief expected to lean on his amiable relationship with Trump to ease concerns over European defence spending, ahead of the NATO summit in Turkey on July 7-8.

• While Trump has committed to attending the summit, the lead-up has been coloured by comments from Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio questioning the value of the alliance for the US; threatening to upend decades of policy regarding US troop deployments in Europe; and undermining confidence in Washington’s commitment to the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defence clause.
• The lead-up has also included several high-profile spats with European leaders, most recently with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, suggesting that the leaders’ confab could be less amicable than last year’s summit in The Hague. However, it should be noted that Trump tends to keep his in-person meetings more cordial than his online pronouncements.
• Trump is also expected to meet today with top executives from the largest US defence contractors to ratchet up pressure to increase production of critical munitions. Semafor notes, “The meeting follows one in March with defense contractors and is expected to include similar participants. The Iran war has eroded stockpiles of expensive weapons that take months to build.”  

• RES 4: 163.59 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 9 - Feb 12 price swing
• RES 3: 163.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 162.28 1.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 9 - Feb 12 price swing
• RES 1: 161.95 High Jul 3 ’24 and a major resistance
• PRICE: 161.73 @ 17:30 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 160.99 Low Jun 19 
• SUP 2: 160.39 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 159.51 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 158.74 Low May 25 

Bullish conditions in USDJPY remain intact and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The recent breach of resistance at 160.72, the Apr 30 high, confirmed a resumption of the M/T uptrend. Sights are on 161.95 next, the Jul 3 ‘24 major high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support is seen around the 50-day EMA, currently at 159.51. 

• Crude oil prices have fallen further on Wednesday amid progress on US-Iran negotiations and increased flows out of the Persian Gulf.
• WTI Aug 26 is down by 4.1% at $70.2/bbl.
• According to the IEA, UAE output is now close to 85% pre-war levels while Iraq is increasing production, and Kuwait is lifting force majeure announcements.
• A short-term bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the bear extension last week plus fresh cycle lows this week, reinforces current conditions.
• The contract has pierced the $70.00 handle, a clear break of which would open $65.95, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 16 - May 18 bull leg.
• Meanwhile, precious metals have fallen sharply today amid further gains for the US dollar after comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who stated the importance of 'dollar dominance'.
• Spot gold is down by 3.2% at $3,985/oz, while silver has fallen by 7.7% to $56.8/oz.
• The latest pullback comes despite a decline in global yields, with bearish technical conditions and the broader dollar bid dominating.
• After breaching the psychological $4,000 figure, the next main supports to monitor for gold are $3,945.2, the 1.236 projection of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - Mar 3 price swing, and $3,886.6, the Oct 28 2025 low.
• For silver, price has pierce psychological round number support at $60 as well as $56.496, the Dec 4 2025 low. Next support below here is $53.345, the Nov 28 2025 low.