USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart     
• RES 3: 118.62 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 14 bear leg   
• RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5   
• RES 1: 118.08 Intraday high        
• PRICE: 118.05 @ 07:43 BST Mar 31 
• SUP 1: 117.44 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 116.89 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support    
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Mar 17  
• SUP 4: 115.75 Low Mar 14     

Recent gains in BTP futures still appear corrective in nature. However, the contract continues to appreciate and price is trading higher once again, today. A continuation of the current bull phase would signal scope for a climb towards 118.62, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 116.89, the Mar 25 low. A break of this level would signal a reversal and the end of the corrective cycle.

Increased U.S. tariff worries have weighed on risk appetite through Asia & early London trade, with European & UK equity index futures pointing towards lower cash opens as a result:

• Euro Stoxx 50 futures: -0.87%
• DAX futures: -0.77%
• CAC 40 futures: -0.97%
• FTSE MIB futures: -0.94%
• FTSE 100 futures: -0.72%
• SMI futures: -0.92%
• Note that Euro Stoxx 50 futures have broken below key support at the Mar 11 low (5,229.00), deepening the bearish threat. The contract has held above round number support at 5,200.00, with bears unable to force a test of that level as of yet. A break there would expose the Feb 4 low (5,160.00).

Download Full Report Here

• The next RBA decision is on April 1 and it is widely expected to keep rates at 4.10% after sounding very cautious when it cut 25bp on February 18. Governor Bullock warned that one rate cut did not mean another would automatically follow as “upside risks remain” and that market pricing was too optimistic.
• The Board is likely to reiterate its data dependence, while the economy since February has developed broadly as it expected. Given that unchanged policy is projected, the statement will be scrutinised for any moderation in February’s cautious tone.
• While a 25bp rate cut in April is given only a 5% probability, a cumulative 71bps of easing is priced by year-end. The market’s reluctance to price in a cut for tomorrow reflects the RBA’s cautiousness surrounding February's easing.
• The prospects for a rate cut at the May 20 meeting are open given it occurs after Q1 CPI on April 30, Q1 WPI May 14, two sets of jobs data, the election and will include updated RBA projections which are likely to include more details on US tariffs.