GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Just Ahead Of The Bull Trigger
Sep-12 05:27
- RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4
- RES 3: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug 1 downleg
- RES 2: 1.3595 High Aug 14 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3590 High Sep 9
- PRICE: 1.3556 @ 06:25 BST Sep 12
- SUP 1: 1.3472/3333 50-day EMA / Low Sep 3
- SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact. The rally that started Sep 3 has retraced the steep Sep 2 sell-off and highlights a stronger bullish development. This also suggests the corrective cycle between Aug 14 - Sep 3 is over. Sights are on resistance at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition. Initial support to watch is 1.3472, the 50-day EMA.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Aug-13 05:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14-Aug | 0700 | Q2 | GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction |
| 18-Aug | 1530 | --- | DMO likely to publish FQ3 consultation agenda |
| 20-Aug | 0001 | Aug | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 20-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Consumer inflation report / PPI |
| 21-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Public Sector Finances |
| 21-Aug | 0930 | Aug | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 21-Aug | 1100 | Aug | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 22-Aug | 0001 | Aug | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 22-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Retail Sales |
| 23-Aug | 1725 | --- | BOE Bailey at Jackson Hole |
| 26-Aug | 0001 | Aug | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 26-Aug | - | --- | DMO to hold FQ3 consultations with investors / GEMMs |
| 27-Aug | 1100 | Aug | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 29-Aug | 0730 | --- | DMO to release FQ3 (Oct-Dec) issuance ops calendar |
| 01-Sep | 0930 | Aug | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 01-Sep | 0930 | Jul | BOE Lending to Individuals / M4 |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Aug-13 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 13-Aug | 0700 | DE | HICP (f) |
| 13-Aug | 0800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 14-Aug | 0745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 14-Aug | 1000 | EU | IP / GDP 2nd Est / Employment |
| 18-Aug | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 19-Aug | 0900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 20-Aug | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Aug | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 21-Aug | 0815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 21-Aug | 0830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 21-Aug | 0900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 21-Aug | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 21-Aug | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 22-Aug | 0700 | DE | GDP (f) |
| 22-Aug | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 22-Aug | 1000 | EU | Negotiated Wage Growth |
CHINA: Country Wrap: Plans Afoot to Subsidize Consumer Loans
Aug-13 05:17
- China plans to subsidize interest payments on eligible personal consumer loans from Sept. 2025 to Aug. 2026, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance. Subsidy applies to loans under 50,000 yuan for consumption, and designated big-ticket items over 50,000 yuan — including autos, education, and healthcare. China’s consumer loan interest subsidy program is expected to support a recovery in lending, especially for operating loans in the consumer services sector, while benefiting major banks and enhancing their market share, according to analysts from brokerages including China Merchants Securities. (source BBG)
- resident Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have expressed their opposition to unilateralism and protectionism, and pledged to promote the greater development of bilateral ties. In a phone conversation between the two heads of state on Tuesday, Xi told Lula that China is ready to work with Brazil to set an example of unity and self-reliance among major countries of the Global South, and to jointly build a more just world and a more sustainable planet. (source China Daily)
- China and Hong Kong markets are also higher. The CSI 300 last around +0.90%. The HSI is up around +1.90%, with the tech sub index +2.35%.
- Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1350 Per USD; Estimate 7.1768
- Ten year government bond yields are modestly lower with the 10-year at 1.72%
