OPTIONS: Trade Goes Mixed After Recent Upside
Jan-08 17:52
Thursday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:
- RXG6 126/125ps, bought for 3 in 2k
- ERU6 96.43/96.56/96.68c fly, bought for 0.25 in 12k
- ERZ6 97.93/98.06/98.18 call fly paper paid 0.75 on 10K
- ERZ6 98.06/97.93/97.81p fly 1x3x2, bought for 1.5 in 10k
- ERZ6 98.06/97.93/97.81p fly, bought for 5.25 in 2.5k
- 2RH6 97.93 calls vs. ERH6 98.25 calls paper paid 1.25 for the mid-curve on 8.2K
- SFIH6 96.50/96.60/96.70c fly 1x3x1, bought for half in 4k
- SFIM6 96.85/75/55/35 put condor, paper pays 4.25 for 25k
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FED: US TSY 9Y-11M AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $95 MLN FROM $39.000 BLN TOTAL
Dec-09 2025 17:45
- US TSY 9Y-11M AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $95 MLN FROM $39.000 BLN TOTAL
FRANCE: Health Insurance Spending Agreement Key To Green Abstention Decision
Dec-09 2025 17:27
Some more colour on the Green abstention via Le Parisien:
"Speaking to several television stations, Cyrielle Chatelain, president of the Ecologist and Social group in the National Assembly, declared that "the trajectory presented by the amendment which increases the Ondam to 3% allows us to have these constant resources, which is why the Ecologist group will abstain in its vast majority." "
FED: MNI Fed Preview - December 2025: Winter Of Discontent
Dec-09 2025 17:25
We've published our FOMC meeting preview - Download Full Report Here
- The FOMC is expected to look through the data fog and deliver a “hawkish cut” on December 10, with a third consecutive 25bp reduction in the Fed funds rate range to 3.50-3.75%.
- While a December cut is over 90% priced, a follow-up cut in January is seen as having under 30% probability, and the next easing is only fully priced by next June.
- There will be the usual attention on the Summary of Economic Projections including the Dot Plot, but more attention than usual on the Statement to see how resolutely the easing bias remains.
- Forward guidance is likely to be amended to reflect a more patient stance on cuts. As such the market reaction to the meeting could hinge on how Chair Powell portrays the burden of proof for the next cut.
- Powell will highlight that the Committee is increasingly reluctant to ease further without additional evidence of labor market deterioration. But by the same token, he could express that’s not an insurmountable obstacle, and a follow-up easing is possible in the event of incoming data before end-January.
- The lack of major data since the September projections round portends only limited changes to the macro and rate forecasts. None of the end-year rate dot medians are likely to change, implying 25bp cuts in each of 2026 and 2027.
